RAGE INDEX Methodology v3.0

The World War Tracker · RAGE Intel · Effective RIX-2026-071 (26 October 2026)#

Supersedes v2.1.1 · Owner: RAGE Intel Index Desk · Status: LIVE#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

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0. WHAT CHANGED, AND WHY#

v1 and v2 measured regions. They answered "how dangerous is the world?" with one number that barely moved (86 → 88 in three weeks). That number needed TI, RIX-U and pillars to explain it.

v3 measures wars. Readers follow wars by name, and they want three things about each one:

1. How bad is it? → the Escalation Level (0–100) and its Phase
2. Which way is it going? → Momentum and the daily move (▲▼)
3. How close is it to stopping? → the Peace Track (0–5) and the Ceasefire Odds

Each war also gets verified death figures and a ground update. Every edition opens with the world number, then shows what moved most.

What stays the same: the name RAGE INDEX, the serials (RIX-YYYY-NNN), the six evidence labels, the forecast ledger and Brier scoring, the corrections policy, and the house design.

Series break. The v3 world number is on a new scale and cannot be compared with v1/v2 values (86–88). The v2 archive (RIX-051 to RIX-070) stays published unchanged. The v3 series begins at RIX-071.

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1. WHAT IS TRACKED#

1.1 The tracked wars (12 at launch)#

1.2 Entry and exit#

• A war enters when it has ≥ 25 conflict deaths in a 30-day window, or an Escalation Level ≥ 40, backed by REPORTED-or-better evidence.
• A war leaves after 30 consecutive days at Phase 1 (Calm). It is first moved to Watchlist.
• Watchlist: flashpoints we monitor but do not score, shown in a single line, for example Taiwan Strait, Korean peninsula, Venezuela/Cuba, Jordan, Haiti, Somalia.

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2. THE ESCALATION LEVEL (EL), 0–100, PER WAR#

Five pillars of 0–20 each. EL = their sum.

Momentum is the moving part. M sits at 10 when the week was stable. It rises above 10 when the war escalates and falls below 10 when it calms. That is why every war's EL moves day to day, and why EL tells you both the level and the direction.

2.1 Phases (from the EL)#

2.2 Daily movement rules#

• Each day the desk re-scores the five pillars, from claims labelled REPORTED or better.
• Maximum move: ±5 EL per war per day. Anything bigger triggers a Flash edition and is disclosed.
• Every move is explained: the edition lists the driver (▲) or offset (▼) for each pillar that changed.
• No collection = no move. A war with no new reporting holds, marked HOLD · no new data.

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3. THE PEACE TRACK (PT), 0–5, PER WAR#

How far the war is from stopping, measured by diplomatic facts, not hopes.

Read the Escalation Level and the Peace Track together. For example, Gaza: EL 66 · PT 4 is "a ceasefire on paper while fighting continues." Ukraine: EL 90 · PT 2 is "full-scale war, talks planned."

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4. DEATH WATCH (per war)#

Three fields, each attributed and dated:

Rules (non-negotiable)

• Never add up figures from different sources or dates.
• Never estimate a number that no source gives. Where none exists: "No reliable daily count."
• Say whose count it is: health ministries, armed forces and monitors count differently. Label combatants and civilians only when the source does.
• Party claims about enemy losses are REPORTED at most, and are shown as claims.

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5. GROUND UPDATE (per war)#

Two to four lines: what changed on the ground since the last edition. That means territory, offensives, sieges, strikes, displacement and diplomacy, each with its evidence label. Background and repeated information belong elsewhere.

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6. CEASEFIRE ODDS (per war)#

Each war carries at most two live, scored forecasts from the ledger, phrased so a reader understands them at once. For example:

• "US strike on Iran, 4–30 Nov: 45%"
• "Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire by 31 Dec: 8%"

Where no forecast exists, the card shows "No forecast yet." Ledger rules are unchanged (v2.1.1): Brier at the issue price, published misses, resolution sources, and void rules.

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7. THE WORLD NUMBER: RAGE INDEX (RIX)#

RIX = average Escalation Level of all tracked wars (rounded)

• It is published with the phase of that average and three counters: wars at Full-scale · wars escalating (M > 10) · wars with a ceasefire agreed (PT ≥ 4).
• Why a plain average: anyone can check it from the table. The Global stakes pillar (K) already lets globally dangerous wars score higher.
• The world number's daily move = the change in the average. Most dangerous = the highest EL. Escalating fastest = the largest EL rise (tie-break: Momentum; baseline day: highest Momentum). Closest to a ceasefire = the highest PT, with the lowest EL as tie-breaker.
• Rounding: half up (69.50 → 70). The precise average is always published beside the rounded number.
• Automation: rix.py computes every derived value (EL, phase, world number, counters, today's three) from conflicts.json, enforces the 0–20 pillar range, the ±5 daily move cap and the two-forecast limit per war, and refuses to build if any rule is broken.

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8. EVIDENCE STANDARD (unchanged from v2)#

The six claim labels: CONFIRMED · CORROBORATED · REPORTED · UNVERIFIED · DISPUTED · FALSE OR MISLEADING.

Plus: STATEMENT (an official said it; the statement itself is confirmed) · ANALYSIS (RAGE Intel's judgement) · NOT COVERED (no reporting found).

• Repetition never upgrades a label.
• Interested parties are strong sources for their own actions and weak sources for enemy losses.
• Coverage per war: A (≥ 3 independent same-day chains) · B (2 chains, or 1 plus official statements) · C (light, or older than 48 hours) · D (none: the war holds).

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9. EDITION ARCHITECTURE v3#

On Sundays, a Weekly Review adds weekly movers (EL change per war), the week's deaths by source, PT changes, and forecasts resolved.

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10. CAROUSEL (Instagram) — see RAGE INDEX Carousel Standard v2.0#

The carousel runs: Cover (world number + today's three) → War Board → 3–4 war cards (today's movers) → Ceasefire Watch → Death Watch → Ledger → Watch next (CTA).

The carousel is generated from the same data file (conflicts.json) as the edition. One source of truth: no number appears on a slide that is not in the data file and the edition.

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11. GOVERNANCE AND CHANGE LOG#

• Methodology changes are versioned and announced in an edition. Adding or removing a war follows §1.2 and is disclosed.
• Independence: no score is adjusted for audience, partner or advertiser interest.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RAGE INDEX Methodology v3.0 · Effective RIX-2026-071