RAGE INDEX — 10 November 2026: 72 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-086 · RAGE Intel · Tuesday, 10 November 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 10 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 10 Nov 23:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 7#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 72 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 72.17 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 866, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-085: +0.00 (was 72.17)

Verdict. The world number holds at 72 (72.17). Iran eases to 80: Trump said the war is "effectively over" and is holding off strikes, though the blockade stays. Yemen rises to 94 as the Houthis hit a Saudi oil pipeline. Ukraine stays at 97 on the day talks opened in Abu Dhabi.

The day. Russia, Ukraine and the US opened talks in Abu Dhabi, the first since February, with no outcome reported. Trump said the Iran war is "effectively over" militarily and he is holding off strikes, but the blockade stays. Saudi Arabia reported a limited fire on its East-West pipeline after a Houthi attack.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Sudan, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Gaza, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ███████████████████░  97  ▲  PT ●●●○○
YEM  ███████████████████░  94  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  80  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  75  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  72     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 97 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 3/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Talks open in Abu Dhabi. 162 drones overnight.

Peace Track: ●●●○○ 3 · Talks under way. Talks under way: US-mediated trilateral talks opened in Abu Dhabi on 10 Nov (US, Russia, Ukraine). No agreement reported; positions on territory are far apart.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 10 Nov: Russia, Ukraine and the US opened trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, the first since February. US: Witkoff and Kushner. Ukraine: Umerov, Budanov, Arakhamia. Russia: Medinsky, Ushakov, Kostyukov, Ryabkov. Kushner: "some good ideas how to bridge" the gaps. No outcome reported; the session ran nearly four hours. CONFIRMED
• Positions: Putin demands Ukraine leave Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, drop its NATO bid and accept military limits. Zelensky rejects ceding land and wants an immediate ceasefire first. Merz: no "overly high expectations." Russia objects to European participation in the trilateral format. STATEMENT
• Overnight to 10 Nov: Russia launched 162 drones (96 jet-powered) and one ballistic missile; Ukraine's air force says 135 were downed or suppressed, with impacts at 19 locations. Russia says it downed 155 Ukrainian drones. CONFIRMED
• 8 Nov: the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant lost all off-site power for about 10 hours after its only 330 kV line disconnected, and ran on diesel generators. IAEA's Grossi: the "27th such event during the conflict." Cause unknown. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russia and Ukraine agree a prisoner exchange by 30 Nov: 55% (F-20261110-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · CBS News: US-Russia-Ukraine talks get underway in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · CP24 / AP: US-mediated talks on ending Russia-Ukraine war begin in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 2, injure 37, hit substations linked to nuclear plants, 7 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Power to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant cut, restored, IAEA says, 9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 94 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · Pipeline hit. Missiles over Riyadh again.

What moved: S 18→19: the Houthis' reach widened: an attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia's Medina region (9 Nov, "limited fire") and missiles over Riyadh again on 10 Nov

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 9 Nov: the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia's Medina region was attacked. A Saudi energy ministry official said the strike caused a "limited fire" that was extinguished and that pipeline operations were unaffected. No injuries. CONFIRMED
• 10 Nov: the coalition says it destroyed a ballistic and a cruise missile over Riyadh and a second ballistic missile over the south, and blames the Houthis. Explosions were heard and shelter alerts sent; the Houthis had not commented. CONFIRMED
• 8 Nov: Saudi Arabia's energy ministry says debris from "an attempt to attack" damaged Aramco's office tower in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District: windows blown out on several floors, no casualties. The Houthis claimed it. The coalition says it destroyed three ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and the Eastern Province. CONFIRMED
• The Houthi health ministry now says 33 people, including 8 women and 13 children, were killed and 39 wounded in air strikes on al-Shariyah, near Sanaa, on 7 Nov (AP had 25 earlier). Saudi Arabia says it is investigating. Not independently verified. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov · Reuters via Investing.com: Aramco building damaged by falling debris, ministry says, 8 Nov · Jerusalem Post / Reuters: Houthis claim 33 killed, 39 wounded in Saudi airstrikes · AP via CTV: an airstrike has killed 25 people near Yemen's capital, Houthi official says, 7 Nov · CBS News live, 6 Nov

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Sudan takes Ethiopia to the UN over the drones.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly closed Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref. Critical Threats counts 21 sets of RSF strikes on fuel or power sites since 22 Oct. REPORTED
• Sudan Tribune reports two women killed in a Sudanese army airstrike on a water source in North Kordofan, and army advances in Darfur and Kordofan. REPORTED
• A drone strike killed at least seven at a fuel station in South Kordofan (Sudan Tribune). Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan's army of supporting TPLF-linked rebels. REPORTED
• 2 Nov: drones hit three more substations, New Halfa and Aroma in Kassala and al-Ghazali in Northern state: 18 attacks on the grid in a week (Al Jazeera). Widespread outages. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station · Al Jazeera: RSF drone strikes reveal deep divisions between Sudan and Ethiopia, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN over drone spree, 2 Nov

🟥 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 80 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Trump: war "effectively over." Blockade stays.

What moved: M 19→18: after meeting Qatar's prime minister on 9 Nov, Trump said he will hold off on fresh strikes "for now" and called renewed action "quite unlikely"; Qatar sees "progress." The naval blockade and Task Force Iron Gate stay in place; Iran denies any planned talks

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only: Qatar and Pakistan carry indirect talks; a framework is circulating. No meeting of the parties is announced.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 9 Nov: after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump said Iran "militarily is effectively over" and renewed strikes are "quite unlikely"; the US is "locked and loaded" if that changes. He said he will hold off at the request of Gulf states, but the naval blockade continues. Brent fell to about $92. STATEMENT
• 10 Nov: Qatar says it sees "progress" but "cannot say how close or how far away an agreement is." Tehran proposes resuming talks within two days if the US halts attacks, lifts the port blockade and waives some sanctions; nuclear talks would come later. STATEMENT
• Iran's foreign minister Araghchi denied any meeting was planned, after reports of a Vance–Rezaei meeting in Qatar. Rezaei: Washington "flails like a desperate gambler." Iranian state TV says Qeshm was targeted overnight into 9 Nov; the US has not acknowledged it. REPORTED
• 6 Nov: Trump confirmed US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, calling them "minor strikes" on air defences: a new anti-aircraft device was "knocked out in about 15 minutes, maybe five." Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in Suza. Iran says it shot down a US MQ-9 (Iranian claim). CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261109-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran page, headlines 7–9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 75 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Clashes reported inside Eritrea. Consulates shut.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Ethiopia and Sudan are closing each other's consulates.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Two conflict trackers and a Tigray Peace Force official report clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces near Tserona, inside Eritrea, on 30 Oct–1 Nov, including artillery and drone strikes. Critical Threats could not verify them. UNVERIFIED
• A TPF official told DW that federal forces took the Egela border area from Eritrean and TPLF forces (1 Nov); clashes with the TDF around Egela reported 2–3 Nov. UNVERIFIED
• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly ordered Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref closed. REPORTED
• Sudan's UN complaint names Bahir Dar airbase, in Ethiopia's Amhara region, among RSF drone launch sites. Ethiopia accuses Sudan's army of backing TPLF-linked rebels; Khartoum denies it. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 8 Nov: a sandbank collapsed onto a tent in Deir el-Balah after the first winter storm, killing four children and a woman; two missing. About 70,000 tents flooded. Gaza's media office blames Israel, the US and the international community for blocking shelter supplies. REPORTED
• PCHR documents 8 Palestinians killed 2–5 Nov, including a 16-year-old girl in a drone strike on a displacement tent in Gaza City. REPORTED
• 5 Nov: 5 killed, including a 12-year-old boy shot east of al-Bureij camp, two in strikes near al-Zawayda and a woman near Khan Younis (civil defence, hospitals, via AFP). The health ministry counts more than 1,600 killed since the ceasefire. REPORTED
• 3 Nov (Reuters): at least 5 killed: three in Khan Younis, one in al-Musaddar, one in a strike on a car in Tel al-Hawa, Gaza City. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron operation ends: 11 days, 4 guns found.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 2 Nov: the IDF ended the 11-day Hebron operation; "forces withdrew from the neighborhood in Hebron this morning", a military official said. Dozens detained, four firearms seized; WAFA says some 3,300 were displaced. No official IDF statement. REPORTED
• Day 10 of the Hebron siege (1 Nov): municipality says 3,300+ displaced or affected, 15 homes and structures demolished, 327 businesses closed, 80,000 students out of school; Mayor al-Jabari calls it "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• OCHA: 397 settler attacks in the West Bank in October, the highest monthly figure since monitoring began in 2006. 57 Palestinians injured in the Hebron area, 23 of them by settlers. CONFIRMED
• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
• Israel: Final results (CEC): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 27, Yashar 21. The new Knesset is sworn in on 10 Nov. CONFIRMED — Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

45 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.19 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 7 open

Today's batch: 2 resolved · 2 happened, 0 did not · batch Brier 0.2125 (a coin flip scores 0.25).

Resolved today#

Open#

F-20261110-01. The case for: prisoner exchanges have continued through earlier rounds and are the one outcome analysts expected from Abu Dhabi. The case against: Russia opposes a general ceasefire and the sides are far apart on territory, so talks could stall and swaps could be held back as leverage. Resolution: both governments, or a mediator, announce a completed or agreed exchange, 10–30 Nov.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• No corrections today. Ledger: F-20261028-01 (Saudi oil facility) resolves YES as a disclosed judgement call; read the resolution note for the stricter reading.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · CBS News: US-Russia-Ukraine talks get underway in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · CP24 / AP: US-mediated talks on ending Russia-Ukraine war begin in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 2, injure 37, hit substations linked to nuclear plants, 7 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Power to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant cut, restored, IAEA says, 9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

Yemen war: Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov · Reuters via Investing.com: Aramco building damaged by falling debris, ministry says, 8 Nov · Jerusalem Post / Reuters: Houthis claim 33 killed, 39 wounded in Saudi airstrikes · AP via CTV: an airstrike has killed 25 people near Yemen's capital, Houthi official says, 7 Nov · CBS News live, 6 Nov

Sudan civil war: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station · Al Jazeera: RSF drone strikes reveal deep divisions between Sudan and Ethiopia, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN over drone spree, 2 Nov

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran page, headlines 7–9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct · Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-086 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 72 (72.17) · 4 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.19 · 7 forecasts open