RAGE INDEX — 4 November 2026: 72 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-080 · RAGE Intel · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 4 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 4 Nov 11:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 13#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 72 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 71.75 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 861, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-079: +0.08 (was 71.67)

Verdict. The world number holds at 72 (71.75). Ukraine rises to 95, the highest score on the board: the aid-site toll reached 31 with dozens missing, and Russia fired 365 drones and missiles overnight. Talks are now dated: Abu Dhabi, 10–11 Nov. In the Gulf, a draft deal is on the table.

The day. The Komyshuvakha toll rose to at least 31 with more than 45 missing. The US and Russia confirmed Abu Dhabi talks for 10–11 Nov. Qatar says the US and Iran are reviewing a draft deal, while a sailor died in a ship attack off Oman.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Ethiopia, DR Congo, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ███████████████████░  95  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  91  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  81  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  74  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  72     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 95 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · 31 dead at an aid site. Talks dated for 10–11 Nov.

What moved: M 18→19: the Komyshuvakha toll rose to at least 31 with 45+ missing; overnight Russia fired 289 drones, 17 ballistic and 59 cruise missiles at nine regions, wounding at least 62 in Kharkiv and halting three DTEK power plants

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Talks planned: US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 Nov, dates confirmed by envoy Witkoff; the Kremlin confirms a delegation.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Komyshuvakha toll has risen to at least 31, including four police officers and two rescuers, with more than 45 residents missing (AP). Russia used bunker-busting bombs; three days of mourning declared. Semikin: "The scale of the tragedy is terrifying." CONFIRMED
• Night of 2–3 Nov: 289 drones, 17 ballistic and 59 cruise missiles across nine regions (Zelensky). Kharkiv: at least 62 wounded. Dnipro: 1 killed, 17 wounded. DTEK says three of its power plants halted. CONFIRMED
• US-mediated talks are set for 10–11 Nov in Abu Dhabi, envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed; the Kremlin says a Russian delegation will attend. CONFIRMED
• 2 Nov: Russian aircraft bombed a school used as an aid distribution point in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia, then struck again with nine more bombs as people sheltered. State Emergency Service: 24 killed, including a police officer and two rescuers (Al Jazeera); later reports say 26 (RFE/RL). Five injured; Governor Semikin says 27 missing. DISPUTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in a US-brokered trilateral by 15 Nov: 85% (F-20261023-02) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: PBS / AP: Russian strikes on Ukrainian aid site kill at least 31, dozens still missing, 3 Nov · NPR: 29 killed, 48 missing after Russian strike on Ukrainian aid site, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Russian attack on Ukraine aid hub kills 24, 2 Nov · RFE/RL: Russian strikes kill at least 24 in Ukrainian town as aid hub hit multiple times · Al Jazeera: Kherson braces for return of war as localised truce ends, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 1, injure 47, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity, 1 Nov

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 91 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · 300,000 driven from their homes.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 3 Nov: the Houthis say Saudi strikes killed 17 people over two days (Houthi claim, no breakdown). The coalition says it destroyed a drone over Mecca and another later in the day. REPORTED
• 2 Nov: the coalition intercepted a Houthi missile and two drones aimed at Riyadh; the Houthis say they launched drones at Dammam airport. No damage reported. REPORTED
• IOM: more than 300,000 people have fled fighting in western Yemen, almost all in the past two months. "Without more funding, thousands of families could be left without the help they urgently need" (IOM's Abdusattor Esoev). CONFIRMED
• 1 Nov: the coalition says it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile; Houthi media renew threats against Saudi airspace and Aramco and say Saudi strikes hit Hodeidah's university (Houthi claim). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01)

Sources: Khaleej Times live, 3 Nov · UN/IOM via Free Malaysia Today: more than 300,000 have fled fighting in western Yemen, 2 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Sudan takes Ethiopia to the UN over the drones.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A drone strike killed at least seven at a fuel station in South Kordofan (Sudan Tribune). Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan's army of supporting TPLF-linked rebels. REPORTED
• 2 Nov: drones hit three more substations, New Halfa and Aroma in Kassala and al-Ghazali in Northern state: 18 attacks on the grid in a week (Al Jazeera). Widespread outages. REPORTED
• Sudan's complaint to the UNSC and AU says 187 drones in 70 attacks (15 Feb–27 Oct) killed or wounded 484 civilians and killed 176 soldiers; October alone saw 97 drones. Ethiopia has not responded publicly; the UAE denies arming the RSF. STATEMENT
• 1 Nov: drone strikes knocked out the Al-Dabbah substation (Northern state) and the Abu Hamad substation (River Nile). Earlier: the 500 MW Um Dabakir thermal plant (White Nile) shut down after a strike; Shendi's main substation lost its transformers. CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station · Al Jazeera: RSF drone strikes reveal deep divisions between Sudan and Ethiopia, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN over drone spree, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: drone attacks extend campaign targeting Sudan's power system, 2 Nov · AP via News4JAX: Sudan's power grid nears collapse as drone strikes target electric stations, 1 Nov · Sudan Tribune: RSF drone strikes knock out power stations in northern Sudan

🟥 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 81 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · A draft deal on the table, and strikes around it.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only: Qatar and Pakistan carry indirect talks; a framework is circulating. No meeting of the parties is announced.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 3 Nov: Qatar says the US and Iran are reviewing a draft proposal to end the war, with feedback expected within 36 hours; Qatar says it is "bridging the gap". Trump says Iran "wants a settlement" and he is in no rush to resume strikes. STATEMENT
• The IRGC says it destroyed a US MQ-9 drone east of Hormuz and shot down two drones over Bandar Khamir (Tasnim); Iranian state media say three tankers hit mines. None independently confirmed. UNVERIFIED
• An Indian crew member of the cargo vessel MSV Al Jusufi died after it was hit by an "unidentified aerial object" off Oman; 13 crew were rescued (India's shipping minister). CONFIRMED
• 2 Nov: a US official told AP the US carried out "defensive strikes" on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. The WSJ, citing US officials, says they hit Qeshm Island and were kept quiet to avoid signalling a return to major combat. Iranian media reported five explosions on Qeshm and blasts near Bandar Lengeh. No casualty figures. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 75% (F-20261025-01) · Iran publicly gives a formal response (accept, reject or counter) to the Qatari draft deal by 7 Nov: 65% (F-20261031-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: US hits Qeshm Island, Pezeshkian signals more diplomacy, 3 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Indian sailor killed after vessel attacked off Oman · PBS / AP: U.S. strikes Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. official tells AP, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: explosions hit Iran's Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes, 3 Nov · Euronews: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island ahead of midterm elections, 3 Nov

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 74 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · The 25 dead: Amhara and Tigray, not Tigray alone.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• Sudan's UN complaint names Bahir Dar airbase, in Ethiopia's Amhara region, among RSF drone launch sites. Ethiopia accuses Sudan's army of backing TPLF-linked rebels; Khartoum denies it. STATEMENT
• Correction of location: of the 25+ civilians killed on 29–30 Oct, 14–16 died in four drone strikes on the Hayiq Jari 2 displacement camp in Amhara (witnesses, AFP; Reuters sources: at least 15). The Tigray strike on a sorghum lorry in Rama killed 11–13. REPORTED
• No claim of responsibility for the Amhara camp strikes; the army did not comment. Reuters sources said Fano fighters, allied to the TPLF, had been seen near the camp. REPORTED
• Drone strikes have hit northern Ethiopia since 29 Oct, killing at least 25 civilians, including children (Africanews, via Rio Times). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 3 Nov: at least 4 killed, including three in a strike on a tent of displaced people west of Khan Younis (Nasser Hospital) and a 17-year-old girl in Gaza City (Al-Shifa). The army says it struck operatives. REPORTED
• 1 Nov: Israeli strikes killed 8, including a 4-year-old boy: 5 in Khan Younis (Nasser Hospital), 3 in Gaza City (Shifa Hospital). The army says it struck militants. REPORTED
• 31 Oct: a teacher was killed in shelling of Nuseirat camp; two girls died after a tent fire in al-Mawasi; a man died of wounds from an earlier strike in Tel al-Hawa. REPORTED
• 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron operation ends: 11 days, 4 guns found.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 2 Nov: the IDF ended the 11-day Hebron operation; "forces withdrew from the neighborhood in Hebron this morning", a military official said. Dozens detained, four firearms seized; WAFA says some 3,300 were displaced. No official IDF statement. REPORTED
• Day 10 of the Hebron siege (1 Nov): municipality says 3,300+ displaced or affected, 15 homes and structures demolished, 327 businesses closed, 80,000 students out of school; Mayor al-Jabari calls it "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• OCHA: 397 settler attacks in the West Bank in October, the highest monthly figure since monitoring began in 2006. 57 Palestinians injured in the Hebron area, 23 of them by settlers. CONFIRMED
• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
• Israel: Final results (CEC): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 27, Yashar 21. The new Knesset is sworn in on 10 Nov. CONFIRMED — Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

37 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 13 open

No forecasts were due today.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• Ukraine: the Komyshuvakha toll has risen through the day. Earlier counts: 24 (State Emergency Service), 26, 29 (AP). Latest: at least 31 with 45+ missing (AP, 3 Nov). We show the latest figure and note the earlier ones.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: PBS / AP: Russian strikes on Ukrainian aid site kill at least 31, dozens still missing, 3 Nov · NPR: 29 killed, 48 missing after Russian strike on Ukrainian aid site, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Russian attack on Ukraine aid hub kills 24, 2 Nov · RFE/RL: Russian strikes kill at least 24 in Ukrainian town as aid hub hit multiple times · Al Jazeera: Kherson braces for return of war as localised truce ends, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 1, injure 47, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity, 1 Nov

Yemen war: Khaleej Times live, 3 Nov · UN/IOM via Free Malaysia Today: more than 300,000 have fled fighting in western Yemen, 2 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct

Sudan civil war: Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station · Al Jazeera: RSF drone strikes reveal deep divisions between Sudan and Ethiopia, 3 Nov · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN over drone spree, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: drone attacks extend campaign targeting Sudan's power system, 2 Nov · AP via News4JAX: Sudan's power grid nears collapse as drone strikes target electric stations, 1 Nov · Sudan Tribune: RSF drone strikes knock out power stations in northern Sudan

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera: US hits Qeshm Island, Pezeshkian signals more diplomacy, 3 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Indian sailor killed after vessel attacked off Oman · PBS / AP: U.S. strikes Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. official tells AP, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: explosions hit Iran's Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes, 3 Nov · Euronews: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island ahead of midterm elections, 3 Nov

Ethiopia wars: Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct · Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-080 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 72 (71.75) · 4 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 13 forecasts open