RAGE INDEX — 11 November 2026: 72 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-087 · RAGE Intel · Wednesday, 11 November 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 11 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 11 Nov 11:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 7#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 72 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 72.17 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 866, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-086: +0.00 (was 72.17)

Verdict. The world number holds at 72 (72.17), and all 12 scores are unchanged. Ukraine stays at 97 on day two of the Abu Dhabi talks, with a large prisoner exchange discussed but not confirmed. Yemen's government says it has launched a counteroffensive; the WHO counts 1,771 dead since August.

The day. Russia, Ukraine and the US began a second day of talks in Abu Dhabi on territory. Zelensky says a large prisoner exchange was discussed; we cannot confirm one is agreed. In Yemen, WHO figures show 1,771 killed since August. Israeli strikes killed at least seven in Gaza.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Iran, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ███████████████████░  97  ▲  PT ●●●○○
YEM  ███████████████████░  94  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  80  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  75  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  72     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 97 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 3/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Day two in Abu Dhabi: territory on the table.

Peace Track: ●●●○○ 3 · Talks under way. Talks under way: US-mediated trilateral talks opened in Abu Dhabi on 10 Nov (US, Russia, Ukraine). No agreement reported; positions on territory are far apart.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 10 Nov (day one): talks covered security guarantees and prisoners of war. Zelensky said a large-scale prisoner exchange was discussed (1,000 for 1,000 or 1,500 for 1,500, per Ukrainian media). No agreement is confirmed: one Ukrainian outlet's headline says a swap was agreed, which we could not verify; a Ukrainian MP said an exchange is "possible." REPORTED
• 11 Nov (day two, final day of this round): negotiators are due to take up territorial questions. Putin demands Ukraine leave four regions; Zelensky rejects ceding land and wants a ceasefire first. REPORTED
• 10 Nov: Russia, Ukraine and the US opened trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, the first since February. US: Witkoff and Kushner. Ukraine: Umerov, Budanov, Arakhamia. Russia: Medinsky, Ushakov, Kostyukov, Ryabkov. Kushner: "some good ideas how to bridge" the gaps. No outcome reported; the session ran nearly four hours. CONFIRMED
• Positions: Putin demands Ukraine leave Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, drop its NATO bid and accept military limits. Zelensky rejects ceding land and wants an immediate ceasefire first. Merz: no "overly high expectations." Russia objects to European participation in the trilateral format. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russia and Ukraine agree a prisoner exchange by 30 Nov: 70% (F-20261110-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: UNN: Second day of Abu Dhabi talks will address territorial issues, 11 Nov · Ukrinform: Ukraine, Russia may hold large-scale POW exchange after Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · Ukrainska Pravda: Major prisoner swap agreed at Abu Dhabi talks (headline only; page not opened), 10 Nov · ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · CBS News: US-Russia-Ukraine talks get underway in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · CP24 / AP: US-mediated talks on ending Russia-Ukraine war begin in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 94 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · Government counteroffensive. 1,771 killed since August.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 11 Nov: government forces and the Houthis exchanged attacks across Lahij, Taiz, Marib, al-Jawf, Hajjah and al-Bayda. The government claims 29 air strikes, 39 drone attacks and 744 artillery attacks, and about 190 Houthi fighters killed or injured. The Houthis claim heavy government losses and 109 Saudi-backed strikes. Al Jazeera could not verify the battlefield claims. REPORTED
• WHO figures cited by Al Jazeera: at least 1,771 killed and 7,959 wounded in Yemen since August; more than 300,000 displaced. The coalition says it intercepted two Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh and one at the south; the Houthis say they targeted Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Abqaiq. CONFIRMED
• 9 Nov: the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia's Medina region was attacked. A Saudi energy ministry official said the strike caused a "limited fire" that was extinguished and that pipeline operations were unaffected. No injuries. CONFIRMED
• 10 Nov: the coalition says it destroyed a ballistic and a cruise missile over Riyadh and a second ballistic missile over the south, and blames the Houthis. Explosions were heard and shelter alerts sent; the Houthis had not commented. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Yemeni forces, Houthis exchange attacks, claim to inflict heavy losses, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov · Reuters via Investing.com: Aramco building damaged by falling debris, ministry says, 8 Nov · Jerusalem Post / Reuters: Houthis claim 33 killed, 39 wounded in Saudi airstrikes

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Drone strike kills nine in Blue Nile.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 10 Nov: a Rapid Support Forces drone strike killed nine civilians in Blue Nile state, according to an official cited by Anadolu (we could not open the full report). Darfur24 reported a drone strike that killed two in North Darfur on 9 Nov. REPORTED
• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly closed Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref. Critical Threats counts 21 sets of RSF strikes on fuel or power sites since 22 Oct. REPORTED
• Sudan Tribune reports two women killed in a Sudanese army airstrike on a water source in North Kordofan, and army advances in Darfur and Kordofan. REPORTED
• A drone strike killed at least seven at a fuel station in South Kordofan (Sudan Tribune). Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan's army of supporting TPLF-linked rebels. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Anadolu: 9 civilians killed in RSF drone attack in Sudan's Blue Nile state, 10 Nov · Darfur24: Drone strike kills two in North Darfur, 9 Nov · Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station

🟥 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 80 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Trump: war "effectively over." Blockade stays.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only: Qatar and Pakistan carry indirect talks; a framework is circulating. No meeting of the parties is announced.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 9 Nov: after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump said Iran "militarily is effectively over" and renewed strikes are "quite unlikely"; the US is "locked and loaded" if that changes. He said he will hold off at the request of Gulf states, but the naval blockade continues. Brent fell to about $92. STATEMENT
• 10 Nov: Qatar says it sees "progress" but "cannot say how close or how far away an agreement is." Tehran proposes resuming talks within two days if the US halts attacks, lifts the port blockade and waives some sanctions; nuclear talks would come later. STATEMENT
• Iran's foreign minister Araghchi denied any meeting was planned, after reports of a Vance–Rezaei meeting in Qatar. Rezaei: Washington "flails like a desperate gambler." Iranian state TV says Qeshm was targeted overnight into 9 Nov; the US has not acknowledged it. REPORTED
• 6 Nov: Trump confirmed US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, calling them "minor strikes" on air defences: a new anti-aircraft device was "knocked out in about 15 minutes, maybe five." Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in Suza. Iran says it shot down a US MQ-9 (Iranian claim). CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261109-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran page, headlines 7–9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 75 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Clashes reported inside Eritrea. Consulates shut.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Ethiopia and Sudan are closing each other's consulates.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Two conflict trackers and a Tigray Peace Force official report clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces near Tserona, inside Eritrea, on 30 Oct–1 Nov, including artillery and drone strikes. Critical Threats could not verify them. UNVERIFIED
• A TPF official told DW that federal forces took the Egela border area from Eritrean and TPLF forces (1 Nov); clashes with the TDF around Egela reported 2–3 Nov. UNVERIFIED
• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly ordered Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref closed. REPORTED
• Sudan's UN complaint names Bahir Dar airbase, in Ethiopia's Amhara region, among RSF drone launch sites. Ethiopia accuses Sudan's army of backing TPLF-linked rebels; Khartoum denies it. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · Seven killed in one day despite the ceasefire.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 10 Nov: at least seven Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes and gunfire, including a father and his 13-year-old son in a displacement shelter in Zeitoun, Gaza City (medics). The Israeli military says it struck militants in Zeitoun and Daraj and did not comment on the other incidents. Since the October 2025 ceasefire: at least 1,600 Palestinians killed (Gaza health officials); Israel says four of its soldiers have been killed. REPORTED
• 8 Nov: a sandbank collapsed onto a tent in Deir el-Balah after the first winter storm, killing four children and a woman; two missing. About 70,000 tents flooded. Gaza's media office blames Israel, the US and the international community for blocking shelter supplies. REPORTED
• PCHR documents 8 Palestinians killed 2–5 Nov, including a 16-year-old girl in a drone strike on a displacement tent in Gaza City. REPORTED
• 5 Nov: 5 killed, including a 12-year-old boy shot east of al-Bureij camp, two in strikes near al-Zawayda and a woman near Khan Younis (civil defence, hospitals, via AFP). The health ministry counts more than 1,600 killed since the ceasefire. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The National: Father and son among at least seven killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron operation ends: 11 days, 4 guns found.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 2 Nov: the IDF ended the 11-day Hebron operation; "forces withdrew from the neighborhood in Hebron this morning", a military official said. Dozens detained, four firearms seized; WAFA says some 3,300 were displaced. No official IDF statement. REPORTED
• Day 10 of the Hebron siege (1 Nov): municipality says 3,300+ displaced or affected, 15 homes and structures demolished, 327 businesses closed, 80,000 students out of school; Mayor al-Jabari calls it "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• OCHA: 397 settler attacks in the West Bank in October, the highest monthly figure since monitoring began in 2006. 57 Palestinians injured in the Hebron area, 23 of them by settlers. CONFIRMED
• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
• Israel: Final results (CEC): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 27, Yashar 21. The new Knesset is sworn in on 10 Nov. CONFIRMED — Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

45 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.19 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 7 open

No forecasts were due today.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• No corrections today.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: UNN: Second day of Abu Dhabi talks will address territorial issues, 11 Nov · Ukrinform: Ukraine, Russia may hold large-scale POW exchange after Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · Ukrainska Pravda: Major prisoner swap agreed at Abu Dhabi talks (headline only; page not opened), 10 Nov · ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · CBS News: US-Russia-Ukraine talks get underway in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov · CP24 / AP: US-mediated talks on ending Russia-Ukraine war begin in Abu Dhabi, 10 Nov

Yemen war: Al Jazeera: Yemeni forces, Houthis exchange attacks, claim to inflict heavy losses, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov · Reuters via Investing.com: Aramco building damaged by falling debris, ministry says, 8 Nov · Jerusalem Post / Reuters: Houthis claim 33 killed, 39 wounded in Saudi airstrikes

Sudan civil war: Anadolu: 9 civilians killed in RSF drone attack in Sudan's Blue Nile state, 10 Nov · Darfur24: Drone strike kills two in North Darfur, 9 Nov · Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran page, headlines 7–9 Nov · Zack Eiseman, ICYMI overnight and weekend, 9 Nov

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: The National: Father and son among at least seven killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov · AFP via Arab News: Hamas member among 4 killed in Israeli strikes

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct · Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-087 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 72 (72.17) · 4 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.19 · 7 forecasts open