RAGE INDEX — 12 November 2026: 72 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-088 · RAGE Intel · Thursday, 12 November 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 12 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 12 Nov 11:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 8#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

---

1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 72 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 72.25 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 867, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-087: +0.08 (was 72.17)

Verdict. The world number holds at 72 (72.25). Yemen rises to 95: Houthi fire reached Riyadh for a third day, the WHO counts 2,098 killed since August, and the government is attacking on every front. Ukraine stays at 97 after the Abu Dhabi talks agreed a prisoner exchange but no peace. Iran holds at 80 as Hormuz traffic collapses.

The day. Russia and Ukraine agreed a large prisoner exchange after two days of talks in Abu Dhabi, with no peace breakthrough. In Yemen the WHO counts 2,098 killed since August as the Houthis fired at Riyadh again; the UN extended sanctions on them. Hormuz traffic has collapsed while Iran waits for a US reply. An Israeli strike on Nasser Hospital killed at least six.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Sudan, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

---

3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ███████████████████░  97  ▲  PT ●●●○○
YEM  ███████████████████░  95  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  80  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  75  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  72     world average

---

4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 97 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 3/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Prisoner swap agreed. No peace breakthrough.

Peace Track: ●●●○○ 3 · Talks under way. Talks under way: a US-mediated trilateral round in Abu Dhabi ended on 11 Nov with an agreed prisoner exchange and no peace breakthrough; Medinsky says more talks will follow.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 11 Nov: after two days in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed a "large" exchange of prisoners of war. Medinsky (Russia) and Umerov (Ukraine) both confirmed it. No numbers or date have been given; Medinsky said details would follow. The talks also covered civilians held in captivity and children taken from Ukraine. CONFIRMED
• No breakthrough on the core issues. Medinsky: "every inch of our land will be returned to Russia. One way or another." Kushner warned deep distrust remains. Rubio called the meeting "very productive" but said a breakthrough will take time. No date for another round. STATEMENT
• Next: US envoys Witkoff and Kushner were due to fly to Moscow on 12 Nov to brief Putin, then meet Zelensky. Medinsky said Europe could join only once its "conscience awakens." REPORTED
• 10 Nov (day one): talks covered security guarantees and prisoners of war. Zelensky said a large-scale prisoner exchange was discussed (1,000 for 1,000 or 1,500 for 1,500, per Ukrainian media). No agreement is confirmed: one Ukrainian outlet's headline says a swap was agreed, which we could not verify; a Ukrainian MP said an exchange is "possible." REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed prisoner exchange by 30 Nov: 75% (F-20261112-01) · A second US-brokered trilateral round between Russia and Ukraine is held by 15 Dec: 65% (F-20261112-02)

Sources: ABC (Australia): Ukraine and Russia agree to large prisoner swap after two days of talks, 12 Nov · The Moscow Times: Abu Dhabi talks end with prisoner exchange but no peace breakthrough, 11 Nov · UNN: Second day of Abu Dhabi talks will address territorial issues, 11 Nov · Ukrinform: Ukraine, Russia may hold large-scale POW exchange after Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · Ukrainska Pravda: Major prisoner swap agreed at Abu Dhabi talks (headline only; page not opened), 10 Nov · ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 95 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · 2,098 killed since August. Strikes on Saudi again.

What moved: M 19→20: Houthi missiles and drones at Riyadh and Saudi territory on a third day running (coalition: three cruise missiles at Riyadh intercepted on 11–12 Nov), Houthi shelling of Aden, and a government offensive on all fronts; WHO counts more than 2,000 casualties in nine days

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• WHO (data to 8 Nov): 11,755 casualties since August, including 2,098 killed and 9,657 wounded. More than 2,000 casualties were recorded in nine days, worst in Marib and Lahij. More than 320,000 displaced; OCHA says 333,000, including 24,000 in the past week. Strikes have hit health facilities and ambulances. CONFIRMED
• 11–12 Nov: the coalition says it intercepted three cruise missiles aimed at Riyadh and drones over the Eastern Province. Saudi civil defence says debris from two ballistic missiles fell in Mecca province. The Houthis deny targeting Mecca and claim strikes on a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, the Yanbu facility and Aramco's Riyadh headquarters; these are Houthi claims. Riyadh says it has rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through the pipeline to Yanbu. REPORTED
• 12 Nov: the UN Security Council unanimously extended Yemen sanctions for a year, condemning Houthi cross-border and maritime attacks. Saudi Arabia is reported to be pressing the EU to designate the Houthis a terrorist organisation (Reuters sources). CONFIRMED
• 11 Nov: government forces and the Houthis exchanged attacks across Lahij, Taiz, Marib, al-Jawf, Hajjah and al-Bayda. The government claims 29 air strikes, 39 drone attacks and 744 artillery attacks, and about 190 Houthi fighters killed or injured. The Houthis claim heavy government losses and 109 Saudi-backed strikes. Al Jazeera could not verify the battlefield claims. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Fighting intensifies in Yemen as Houthis deny targeting Mecca, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Yemen's Houthis renew strikes on Saudi Arabia as UNSC extends sanctions, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Yemeni forces, Houthis exchange attacks, claim to inflict heavy losses, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Drone strike kills nine in Blue Nile.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 10 Nov: a Rapid Support Forces drone strike killed nine civilians in Blue Nile state, according to an official cited by Anadolu (we could not open the full report). Darfur24 reported a drone strike that killed two in North Darfur on 9 Nov. REPORTED
• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly closed Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref. Critical Threats counts 21 sets of RSF strikes on fuel or power sites since 22 Oct. REPORTED
• Sudan Tribune reports two women killed in a Sudanese army airstrike on a water source in North Kordofan, and army advances in Darfur and Kordofan. REPORTED
• A drone strike killed at least seven at a fuel station in South Kordofan (Sudan Tribune). Ethiopia denies backing the RSF and accuses Sudan's army of supporting TPLF-linked rebels. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Anadolu: 9 civilians killed in RSF drone attack in Sudan's Blue Nile state, 10 Nov · Darfur24: Drone strike kills two in North Darfur, 9 Nov · Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station

🟥 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 80 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Hormuz traffic collapses. Iran waits for a US reply.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only: Qatar and Pakistan carry indirect talks; a framework is circulating. No meeting of the parties is announced.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 11–12 Nov: Iran says Hormuz stays closed until the US meets its seven conditions: lift the naval blockade, sanctions relief, release frozen funds, end fighting on all fronts. Rezaei calls reports of talks a "pure lie"; Araghchi says the strait could reopen within two days if the demands are met. Rubio: Iran's demands are "unacceptable"; "no need for major combat operations." STATEMENT
• Shipping: five commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on 7 Nov against 31 the weekend before, and Kpler recorded none on 8 Nov. The IRGC says three tankers burned after hitting mines on an "unauthorised route" on 11 Nov (IRGC claim); the UK maritime agency reported incidents involving two tankers. At least 37 ship attacks in October, a monthly high. REPORTED
• 9 Nov: after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump said Iran "militarily is effectively over" and renewed strikes are "quite unlikely"; the US is "locked and loaded" if that changes. He said he will hold off at the request of Gulf states, but the naval blockade continues. Brent fell to about $92. STATEMENT
• 10 Nov: Qatar says it sees "progress" but "cannot say how close or how far away an agreement is." Tehran proposes resuming talks within two days if the US halts attacks, lifts the port blockade and waives some sanctions; nuclear talks would come later. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants by 30 Nov: 10% (F-20261109-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: 'No war, no peace': Can Iran break the deadlock with the US?, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran denies talks with US, says Hormuz will stay shut until demands are met, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 75 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Clashes reported inside Eritrea. Consulates shut.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Ethiopia and Sudan are closing each other's consulates.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Two conflict trackers and a Tigray Peace Force official report clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces near Tserona, inside Eritrea, on 30 Oct–1 Nov, including artillery and drone strikes. Critical Threats could not verify them. UNVERIFIED
• A TPF official told DW that federal forces took the Egela border area from Eritrean and TPLF forces (1 Nov); clashes with the TDF around Egela reported 2–3 Nov. UNVERIFIED
• 4 Nov: Ethiopia ordered Sudan's consulate in Asosa closed; Sudan reportedly ordered Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref closed. REPORTED
• Sudan's UN complaint names Bahir Dar airbase, in Ethiopia's Amhara region, among RSF drone launch sites. Ethiopia accuses Sudan's army of backing TPLF-linked rebels; Khartoum denies it. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · Strike on Nasser Hospital kills six.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 12 Nov: an overnight Israeli strike on Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis killed at least six and wounded more than 20, according to Hamas authorities. The Israeli military and Shin Bet say it targeted Muhammad Abu Ismail, commander of Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade, and other operatives; his fate is unclear and the results are under review. The military took about seven hours to comment. REPORTED
• 10 Nov: at least seven Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes and gunfire, including a father and his 13-year-old son in a displacement shelter in Zeitoun, Gaza City (medics). The Israeli military says it struck militants in Zeitoun and Daraj and did not comment on the other incidents. Since the October 2025 ceasefire: at least 1,600 Palestinians killed (Gaza health officials); Israel says four of its soldiers have been killed. REPORTED
• 8 Nov: a sandbank collapsed onto a tent in Deir el-Balah after the first winter storm, killing four children and a woman; two missing. About 70,000 tents flooded. Gaza's media office blames Israel, the US and the international community for blocking shelter supplies. REPORTED
• PCHR documents 8 Palestinians killed 2–5 Nov, including a 16-year-old girl in a drone strike on a displacement tent in Gaza City. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Times of Israel liveblog, 12 Nov · The National: Father and son among at least seven killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron operation ends: 11 days, 4 guns found.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 2 Nov: the IDF ended the 11-day Hebron operation; "forces withdrew from the neighborhood in Hebron this morning", a military official said. Dozens detained, four firearms seized; WAFA says some 3,300 were displaced. No official IDF statement. REPORTED
• Day 10 of the Hebron siege (1 Nov): municipality says 3,300+ displaced or affected, 15 homes and structures demolished, 327 businesses closed, 80,000 students out of school; Mayor al-Jabari calls it "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• OCHA: 397 settler attacks in the West Bank in October, the highest monthly figure since monitoring began in 2006. 57 Palestinians injured in the Hebron area, 23 of them by settlers. CONFIRMED
• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

---

5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
• Israel: Final results (CEC): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 27, Yashar 21. The new Knesset is sworn in on 10 Nov. CONFIRMED — Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

46 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.19 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 8 open

Today's batch: 1 resolved · 1 happened, 0 did not · batch Brier 0.2025 (a coin flip scores 0.25).

Resolved today#

Open#

F-20261112-01. The case for: both delegation heads publicly confirmed the exchange, and earlier Abu Dhabi swaps went ahead within days or weeks. The case against: no numbers or date have been given, and either side could delay it as leverage. Resolution: both governments, or a mediator, confirm that prisoners crossed, 12–30 Nov.

F-20261112-02. The case for: Medinsky said more talks will be held, and the US envoys are carrying the results to Putin and Zelensky. The case against: no date or venue is set, Russia rejects European participation, and the core demands on territory have not moved. Resolution: delegations of Russia, Ukraine and the US meet in a trilateral session, 12 Nov–15 Dec.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• No corrections today. Ledger: F-20261110-01 resolves YES at its 55% issue price, not at the 70% we held it at on 11 Nov.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: ABC (Australia): Ukraine and Russia agree to large prisoner swap after two days of talks, 12 Nov · The Moscow Times: Abu Dhabi talks end with prisoner exchange but no peace breakthrough, 11 Nov · UNN: Second day of Abu Dhabi talks will address territorial issues, 11 Nov · Ukrinform: Ukraine, Russia may hold large-scale POW exchange after Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov · Ukrainska Pravda: Major prisoner swap agreed at Abu Dhabi talks (headline only; page not opened), 10 Nov · ABC News: Russia, Ukraine and US meet for Abu Dhabi talks, 10 Nov

Yemen war: Al Jazeera: Fighting intensifies in Yemen as Houthis deny targeting Mecca, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Yemen's Houthis renew strikes on Saudi Arabia as UNSC extends sanctions, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Yemeni forces, Houthis exchange attacks, claim to inflict heavy losses, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia downs missiles fired at Riyadh after Houthi attack on pipeline, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh damaged in 'attempted' attack, 8 Nov

Sudan civil war: Anadolu: 9 civilians killed in RSF drone attack in Sudan's Blue Nile state, 10 Nov · Darfur24: Drone strike kills two in North Darfur, 9 Nov · Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Sudan Tribune: two women killed in army airstrike on North Kordofan water source · Sudan Tribune: Sudanese army advances in Darfur and Kordofan · Sudan Tribune: drone strike kills at least seven at South Kordofan fuel station

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera: 'No war, no peace': Can Iran break the deadlock with the US?, 12 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran denies talks with US, says Hormuz will stay shut until demands are met, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: After meeting Qatar PM, Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' militarily, 9 Nov · Euronews: Qatar sees 'progress' in US-Iran talks after White House meeting, 10 Nov · Euronews: Trump says Iran war 'effectively over' as Tehran denies planned talks, 10 Nov · Al Jazeera: Trump confirms new US strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, 7 Nov

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Africa File, 5 Nov 2026 · Al Jazeera: Sudan files complaints against Ethiopia with UN, 2 Nov · AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Times of Israel liveblog, 12 Nov · The National: Father and son among at least seven killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, 11 Nov · Al Jazeera: Gaza authorities slam global 'inaction' after mudslide kills five, 9 Nov · PCHR: Israel kills seven Palestinians, including a girl, in Gaza · The New Arab / AFP: Israel kills five in Gaza, including child, 5 Nov · Reuters via Dawn: Israeli strikes kill five Palestinians in Gaza, 3 Nov

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Times of Israel: IDF ends controversial 11-day Hebron operation, 2 Nov · Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct · Times of Israel: CEC publishes final results, Knesset to be sworn in 10 Nov

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

---

RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-088 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 72 (72.25) · 4 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.19 · 8 forecasts open