RAGE INDEX — 2 November 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-078 · RAGE Intel · Monday, 2 November 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 2 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 2 Nov 11:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 14#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 71.33 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 856, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-077: +0.08 (was 71.25)

Verdict. The world number holds at 71 (71.33). Sudan is the only mover: drone strikes are knocking out its power grid, now as far north as Al-Dabbah. The Oleshky truce ended on schedule with no violations, and our forecast on it resolved YES. Ships were hit again around Hormuz as talks continue in Doha.

The day. Drones blamed on the RSF have hit substations from White Nile to the far north; two states are cut off from the grid. In Ukraine, the Oleshky truce expired with no violations and no extension. In the Gulf, a Qatari LNG carrier was struck and the IRGC says two tankers hit mines.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: DR Congo, Sahel, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  92  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  91  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  ██████████████████░░  88  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  79  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  74  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  62  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  71     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 92 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · The Oleshky truce ends. The strikes don't.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Talks planned (US–Russia–Ukraine, expected 1–15 Nov). The Oleshky local truce expired on 1 Nov with no violations reported; Russia reportedly refused an extension.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Oleshky local ceasefire expired at 22:59 Kyiv time on 1 Nov with no violations reported by either side. A Ukrainian official says Russia refused an extension. Hundreds were evacuated; about 2,000 people were in Oleshky when it began. REPORTED
• Night of 31 Oct–1 Nov: Russia launched 433 drones (371 downed). Strikes on energy in at least four regions; Zelensky says "hundreds of thousands of families" lost power. 1 killed, 47 injured over the day. CONFIRMED
• 1 Nov: a drone hit the grounds of a vocational school dormitory in Kozyatyn district, Vinnytsia Oblast, killing a 13-year-old girl. DSNS: 2 dead, 4 injured; Al Jazeera reports 3 dead. DISPUTED
• Night of 1–2 Nov: 193 drones launched, 154 downed; hits at 26 locations (Ukrainian Air Force). CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in a US-brokered trilateral by 15 Nov: 65% (F-20261023-02) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: Kherson braces for return of war as localised truce ends, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 1, injure 47, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: drone strike near school dormitory kills 13-year-old in Vinnytsia Oblast · Ukrinform: air defences down 154 of 193 drones, 2 Nov · PBS / AP: residents evacuated from Oleshky reach Ukraine, 31 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 91 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · 300,000 driven from their homes.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IOM: more than 300,000 people have fled fighting in western Yemen, almost all in the past two months. "Without more funding, thousands of families could be left without the help they urgently need" (IOM's Abdusattor Esoev). CONFIRMED
• 1 Nov: the coalition says it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile; Houthi media renew threats against Saudi airspace and Aramco and say Saudi strikes hit Hodeidah's university (Houthi claim). REPORTED
• The government claims it seized positions in Jawf; the Houthis say they repelled advances in Jawf and Marib. A UN human rights staffer held since 2024 died in Houthi custody. REPORTED
• A Geneva-based firm (AURORAH) reports Russian military satellites observed areas targeted in 40 Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia (1 Jul–19 Oct); AP sources say the Houthis benefit from Russian intelligence. Russia has not commented. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01)

Sources: UN/IOM via Free Malaysia Today: more than 300,000 have fled fighting in western Yemen, 2 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 88 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Drones are switching off Sudan's power grid.

What moved: S 16→17: RSF-blamed drone strikes now reach the far north, knocking out substations at Al-Dabbah (Northern state) and Abu Hamad (River Nile) on 1 Nov; White Nile and North Kordofan are cut off from the grid

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 1 Nov: drone strikes knocked out the Al-Dabbah substation (Northern state) and the Abu Hamad substation (River Nile). Earlier: the 500 MW Um Dabakir thermal plant (White Nile) shut down after a strike; Shendi's main substation lost its transformers. CORROBORATED
• White Nile and North Kordofan states are cut off from the national grid; the Merowe Dam now supplies 70%+ of Sudan's electricity (AP). Sudan's foreign ministry says the drones were UAE-supplied and launched from Ethiopia; the UAE denies arming the RSF. REPORTED
• Emergency Lawyers, a Sudanese rights group, blames the RSF and counts 15 substations targeted since early October. The RSF did not respond to AP. REPORTED
• The Nyala toll is disputed. Witnesses told AP hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the market; an army-allied spokesman called it a "precise and targeted airstrike" on recruits. MSF says 21 of the wounded it saw wore civilian clothes. DISPUTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: AP via News4JAX: Sudan's power grid nears collapse as drone strikes target electric stations, 1 Nov · Sudan Tribune: RSF drone strikes knock out power stations in northern Sudan · Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 79 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Ships hit, talks continue, "one way or the other".

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only, but moving: an Iranian delegation is in Doha after Qatari mediators visited Tehran. Araghchi calls a letter from Vice President Vance "a positive step" but says "We see no need to meet with the Americans at this stage."

Death Watch

Ground update

• Qatar's Nakilat says its LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck by "unidentified objects" in the Gulf on 30 Oct; no injuries, still operational. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait condemned it. On 2 Nov the IRGC said two crude tankers caught fire after hitting mines in Hormuz (not independently confirmed). REPORTED
• Araghchi: talks with mediators continue on a two-day plan to reopen Hormuz if the US meets Iran's conditions; "no definitive conclusion" yet. Trump: the war will end "very soon, one way or the other". STATEMENT
• Iran designated Britain's Royal Navy and RAF as terrorist organisations and declared MI6 a hostile entity (IRNA, 1 Nov). US envoy at the Manama Dialogue: "The hand of negotiation has been extended." STATEMENT
• An Iranian delegation is in Doha a day after Qatari mediators visited Tehran. The Hormuz reopening plan's implementation period has been cut from five days to two, Al Jazeera reports; Iran's conditions include lifting sanctions and returning frozen funds. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 55% (F-20261025-01) · Iran publicly gives a formal response (accept, reject or counter) to the Qatari draft deal by 7 Nov: 55% (F-20261031-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; Trump again says conflict to end soon, 2 Nov · Gulf News: Qatar LNG tanker hit in Gulf, crew safe · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza as Qataris say vessel struck in Gulf, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: mediators continue US–Iran negotiations amid war rhetoric, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar, 31 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 74 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · The 25 dead: Amhara and Tigray, not Tigray alone.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• Correction of location: of the 25+ civilians killed on 29–30 Oct, 14–16 died in four drone strikes on the Hayiq Jari 2 displacement camp in Amhara (witnesses, AFP; Reuters sources: at least 15). The Tigray strike on a sorghum lorry in Rama killed 11–13. REPORTED
• No claim of responsibility for the Amhara camp strikes; the army did not comment. Reuters sources said Fano fighters, allied to the TPLF, had been seen near the camp. REPORTED
• Drone strikes have hit northern Ethiopia since 29 Oct, killing at least 25 civilians, including children (Africanews, via Rio Times). REPORTED
• 30 Oct: a strike on a grain lorry in Tigray, already hit the night before, killed at least 11, according to witnesses and a medical source. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 1 Nov: Israeli strikes killed 8, including a 4-year-old boy: 5 in Khan Younis (Nasser Hospital), 3 in Gaza City (Shifa Hospital). The army says it struck militants. REPORTED
• 31 Oct: a teacher was killed in shelling of Nuseirat camp; two girls died after a tent fire in al-Mawasi; a man died of wounds from an earlier strike in Tel al-Hawa. REPORTED
• 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5. REPORTED
• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 62 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron's siege hits day 10; settler attacks hit a record.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Day 10 of the Hebron siege (1 Nov): municipality says 3,300+ displaced or affected, 15 homes and structures demolished, 327 businesses closed, 80,000 students out of school; Mayor al-Jabari calls it "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• OCHA: 397 settler attacks in the West Bank in October, the highest monthly figure since monitoring began in 2006. 57 Palestinians injured in the Hebron area, 23 of them by settlers. CONFIRMED
• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT
• UN rights chief Volker Türk: "Threats to empty and erase entire neighbourhoods also raise serious concerns of ethnic cleansing." OCHA has recorded 2,000+ settler attacks causing casualties or damage in 2026, the most on record. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Israel: Near-final count (CEC, 28 Oct): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 26, Yashar! 21, Joint List 12, B'Yachad 12. Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu. Yair Golan: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." A minority government, a unity deal or another election are all possible; official results 4 Nov. REPORTED — Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct
• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

36 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.19 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 14 open

Today's batch: 1 resolved · 1 happened, 0 did not · batch Brier 0.1225 (a coin flip scores 0.25).

Resolved today#

Open#

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• Ethiopia: RIX-077's cover callout read "Tigray drone strikes, 25+ civilians killed". The 25+ figure covers northern Ethiopia: 14–16 died at a displacement camp in Amhara (29 Oct) and 11–13 in Rama, Tigray. The card text ("northern Ethiopia") was right; the callout was not.
• Ukraine: the Vinnytsia toll differs: 2 dead (State Emergency Service) or 3 (Al Jazeera). Both shown.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: Al Jazeera: Kherson braces for return of war as localised truce ends, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 1, injure 47, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity, 1 Nov · Kyiv Independent: drone strike near school dormitory kills 13-year-old in Vinnytsia Oblast · Ukrinform: air defences down 154 of 193 drones, 2 Nov · PBS / AP: residents evacuated from Oleshky reach Ukraine, 31 Oct

Yemen war: UN/IOM via Free Malaysia Today: more than 300,000 have fled fighting in western Yemen, 2 Nov · Khaleej Times live, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct

Sudan civil war: AP via News4JAX: Sudan's power grid nears collapse as drone strikes target electric stations, 1 Nov · Sudan Tribune: RSF drone strikes knock out power stations in northern Sudan · Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; Trump again says conflict to end soon, 2 Nov · Gulf News: Qatar LNG tanker hit in Gulf, crew safe · AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza as Qataris say vessel struck in Gulf, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: mediators continue US–Iran negotiations amid war rhetoric, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar, 31 Oct

Ethiopia wars: AFP via Arab News: drone strikes in Ethiopia kill at least 25 · Reuters via ThePrint: drone strikes on Ethiopia displacement camp kill at least 15 · Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: AP via Click2Houston: Israeli strike kills boy in Gaza, 1 Nov · Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Al Jazeera: Hebron siege continues for 10th day, 1 Nov · WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct · Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-078 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (71.33) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.19 · 14 forecasts open