RAGE INDEX — 1 November 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-077 · RAGE Intel · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Daily + Weekly Review#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 1 Nov 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 1 Nov 11:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 15#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 71.25 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 855, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-076: +0.17 (was 71.08)

Verdict. The world number holds at 71 at the end of the tracker's first week, up 1.67 since launch. Ethiopia moved most today: drone strikes have killed at least 25 civilians in northern Ethiopia since Thursday. In Ukraine, civilians left occupied Oleshky in the war's first joint evacuation. Eleven forecasts closed: three happened, eight did not.

The day. Week one of the World War Tracker: Yemen rose five, Ukraine, Sudan, Iran and Ethiopia two each, and no war calmed. Today, drone strikes in Tigray killed at least 11 at a grain lorry. An Iranian delegation is in Doha as the US weighs strikes after Tuesday's midterms.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Ukraine, Yemen, Sudan, Iran, DR Congo, Gaza, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

The week: 26 Oct → 1 Nov 2026 (Sunday review)#

World number: 69.58 → 71.25 (+1.67) since RIX-2026-071, the tracker's first edition.

7 wars rose, 0 fell, 5 held.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  92  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  91  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  █████████████████░░░  87  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  79  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ███████████████░░░░░  74  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  62  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  71     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 92 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · The first joint evacuation of the war.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Residents evacuated from occupied Oleshky under the local ceasefire reached Ukraine via Anapa and Belarus; others chose Crimea. Neither side has given numbers; the US first lady said more than 750 could leave, and about 2,000 remained. REPORTED
• The Oleshky ceasefire, in force since 27 Oct, runs to the evening of 1 Nov with no reported violations. REPORTED
• Russian strikes on energy and rail left 280,000 households in the Dnipro and Kyiv regions without power (31 Oct). A Ukrainian drone attack killed two in Russia's Bryansk region. REPORTED
• 29 Oct remains the deadliest day this month: 27 killed, 127 injured, 15 of them dead at Dnipro station. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: The Oleshky local ceasefire runs to 1 Nov with no breach reported by either side: 85% (F-20261029-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: PBS / AP: residents evacuated from Oleshky reach Ukraine, 31 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 27, injure 127 over past day, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 91 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · Six claimed strikes, and a push towards Aden.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A Geneva-based firm (AURORAH) reports Russian military satellites observed areas targeted in 40 Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia (1 Jul–19 Oct); AP sources say the Houthis benefit from Russian intelligence. Russia has not commented. REPORTED
• 30 Oct: Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims six attacks: Ras Tanura, the Abqaiq Aramco facility, Riyadh's King Khalid airport, Dammam's King Fahd airport, the Rabigh refinery and a military HQ in Najran. No independent corroboration. UNVERIFIED
• The coalition says it destroyed two ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh; shrapnel wounded one citizen and damaged a house and a car (Saudi Civil Defence). A Houthi drone was shot down over the Makkah region. CONFIRMED
• UAE-linked media report a large Houthi ground attack in Lahj's al-Maqatirah district, 40–50 miles from Aden, with "dozens" killed and wounded on both sides. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone targeting Mecca, 30 Oct · Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 87 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · One strike, five different death tolls.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Nyala toll is disputed. Witnesses told AP hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the market; an army-allied spokesman called it a "precise and targeted airstrike" on recruits. MSF says 21 of the wounded it saw wore civilian clothes. DISPUTED
• One year after El Fasher fell, Amnesty International publishes new testimony of unlawful killings, detention and torture of civilians under RSF control. REPORTED
• One year after El Fasher fell to the RSF, the UN fact-finding mission says it found the "hallmarks of genocide" there and warns of sieges in Kordofan and Blue Nile. STATEMENT
• An RSF drone strike on Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat substation left much of the capital without power for 12+ hours (27 Oct). CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 79 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Talks in Doha, threats in Tehran.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only, but moving: an Iranian delegation is in Doha after Qatari mediators visited Tehran. Araghchi calls a letter from Vice President Vance "a positive step" but says "We see no need to meet with the Americans at this stage."

Death Watch

Ground update

• An Iranian delegation is in Doha a day after Qatari mediators visited Tehran. The Hormuz reopening plan's implementation period has been cut from five days to two, Al Jazeera reports; Iran's conditions include lifting sanctions and returning frozen funds. REPORTED
• Araghchi on the Vance letter: "a positive step". Armed forces chief Ali Abdollahi: any attack will be met with "immense force", with no geographical limits. STATEMENT
• The IRGC says a fourth tanker, a supertanker with 2M+ barrels, caught fire after hitting a mine. CENTCOM's Adm. Cooper says the main routes are clear. DISPUTED
• Trump: the war will end "very soon"; on strikes after the midterms, "anything's possible". AP: no final decision. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 55% (F-20261025-01) · Iran publicly gives a formal response (accept, reject or counter) to the Qatari draft deal by 7 Nov: 55% (F-20261031-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar, 31 Oct · Fox News live: Hormuz, Trump, IRGC, 31 Oct · The War Zone: Iran used a limpet mine in the latest Hormuz attack · Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; 'earth-shattering blow', 31 Oct · CBS News live: tankers strike mines; Hegseth fires top general; Qatar draft, 28–30 Oct · Fox News live: strike options, Louise 1, Brent $117.62, 30 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 74 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Drones over Tigray: 25+ civilians killed in three days.

What moved: V 15→16: drone strikes across northern Ethiopia since 29 Oct have killed at least 25 civilians, including children · M 17→18: a strike on a grain lorry in Tigray killed at least 11 on 30 Oct; strikes on people fleeing a clinic in Medebay Terer

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• Drone strikes have hit northern Ethiopia since 29 Oct, killing at least 25 civilians, including children (Africanews, via Rio Times). REPORTED
• 30 Oct: a strike on a grain lorry in Tigray, already hit the night before, killed at least 11, according to witnesses and a medical source. REPORTED
• Drone strikes in Medebay Terer killed a couple fleeing a clinic and a father with four children (allAfrica, 28 Oct). REPORTED
• The TPLF rejected the federal caretaker administration for Tigray as illegitimate (Addis Standard, around 18–19 Oct). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Ethiopia's government and the TPLF announce talks or a ceasefire by 30 Nov: 7% (F-20261101-01)

Sources: Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct · Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED
• Ebola deaths have passed 5,000 (government data, via Aawsat, 31 Oct). Not counted as war deaths. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 31 Oct: a teacher was killed in shelling of Nuseirat camp; two girls died after a tent fire in al-Mawasi; a man died of wounds from an earlier strike in Tel al-Hawa. REPORTED
• 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5. REPORTED
• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 62 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron under siege for an eighth day.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Day 8 (WAFA): 537 families (3,361 people) displaced from al-Jilda and Deir Bahha, including 1,193 children and 232 infants; losses of 10–12 million shekels a day. STATEMENT
• UN rights chief Volker Türk: "Threats to empty and erase entire neighbourhoods also raise serious concerns of ethnic cleansing." OCHA has recorded 2,000+ settler attacks causing casualties or damage in 2026, the most on record. STATEMENT
• Hebron's governor: 537 families (3,361 people) forced from their homes, including 232 infants; municipal figures put about 5,000 people from 780 families affected. 262,000 students moved to remote learning. STATEMENT
• The Palestinian Prisoners Society reports 110 detentions in Hebron governorate in six days. Two children were shot in Qalandiya camp (Red Crescent). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Israel: Near-final count (CEC, 28 Oct): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 26, Yashar! 21, Joint List 12, B'Yachad 12. Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu. Yair Golan: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." A minority government, a unity deal or another election are all possible; official results 4 Nov. REPORTED — Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct
• Korean peninsula: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan on 29 Oct, its 17th launch event of 2026 (Latin Times count). CONFIRMED — Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

35 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.19 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 15 open

Today's batch: 11 resolved · 3 happened, 8 did not · batch Brier 0.145 (a coin flip scores 0.25).

Resolved today#

Open#

F-20261101-01. For: AU and UN envoys are active, and Kenya is reportedly encouraging mediation. Against: federal drone strikes are intensifying, the TPLF rejects the caretaker administration, and neither side has named a channel. Resolution: both the federal government and the TPLF announce direct or mediated talks, or a ceasefire, by 30 Nov 2026.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• North Korea: RIX-074 to RIX-076 said no ballistic launch had been reported since 12 Oct. That was wrong: North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles on 29 Oct. Our watchlist missed it.
• Ethiopia: RIX-075 and RIX-076 cut the price of F-20261016-01 (TPLF rejects the interim administration) to 45% and 35%, saying no rejection had been found. The TPLF had already rejected it, around 18–19 Oct (Addis Standard). It resolves YES, scored at its issue price of 65%.
• F-20261017-01 resolved YES on a limpet-mine attack. Readers may reasonably count a limpet mine differently from a moored sea mine; the reasoning is published in full in the ledger.
• Brier: the running score (≈0.19, n=35) is approximate, because the pre-v3 figure of 0.22 was itself rounded.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: PBS / AP: residents evacuated from Oleshky reach Ukraine, 31 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 27, injure 127 over past day, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct

Yemen war: Al Jazeera: are Houthis using Russian satellites?, 31 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone targeting Mecca, 30 Oct · Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct

Sudan civil war: Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar, 31 Oct · Fox News live: Hormuz, Trump, IRGC, 31 Oct · The War Zone: Iran used a limpet mine in the latest Hormuz attack · Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; 'earth-shattering blow', 31 Oct · CBS News live: tankers strike mines; Hegseth fires top general; Qatar draft, 28–30 Oct · Fox News live: strike options, Louise 1, Brent $117.62, 30 Oct

Ethiopia wars: Rio Times: Africa intelligence brief, 31 Oct · allAfrica: drone strikes kill couple fleeing clinic, Medebay Terer, 28 Oct · allAfrica / Addis Standard: TPLF rejects caretaker administration, Oct · Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Al Jazeera: at least four Palestinians killed in Gaza, 31 Oct · Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: WAFA: Israeli forces press aggression against Hebron for eighth day, 30 Oct · UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct · Latin Times: North Korea fires 10 missiles toward the Sea of Japan · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-077 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (71.25) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.19 · 15 forecasts open