RAGE INDEX — 29 October 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-074 · RAGE Intel · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 29 Oct 2026, 09:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 29 Oct 08:30 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 24#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 70.75 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 849, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-073: +0.08 (was 70.67)

Verdict. The world number holds at 71. Eleven of twelve wars are still getting worse. Iran moved most: the US has reportedly told Gulf allies to brace for a brief but intense campaign after the midterms. Ukraine eased one point as a local truce in Oleshky held. Israel's vote produced a deadlock.

The day. Israel's near-final count: Netanyahu's bloc 53, the opposition 48, Arab parties 19, with 61 needed. The WSJ reports Gulf allies were told to prepare for a US campaign against Iran after 3 November. In Sudan, the toll from the Nyala market strike ranges from 14 civilians to more than 100, depending on who counts.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Yemen, Sudan, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Gaza, Sahel, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  90  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  █████████████████░░░  87  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  79  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ██████████████░░░░░░  72  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  62  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  71     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 90 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Still the most dangerous war, but a local truce is holding.

What moved: M 15→14: a smaller overnight attack (1 missile, 88 drones) and a local ceasefire in Oleshky that has held for 30+ hours

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A local ceasefire in occupied Oleshky (Kherson), in force from 27 Oct to 1 Nov for evacuations and aid, passed its first 30 hours "without a single incident" (ombudsman Lubinets). STATEMENT
• Overnight 27–28 Oct: Russia launched 1 ballistic missile and 88 drones; 71 drones were stopped and hits were recorded at 8 locations (air force). STATEMENT
• The FT reports Putin spent much of a 27 Oct call with Norway's and Finland's leaders on medieval Slavic history, with little on a ceasefire. The NYT says Trump is weighing lifting sanctions on Russia's sovereign investment fund. REPORTED
• The Kremlin says it is ready to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine in November. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: The Oleshky local ceasefire runs to 1 Nov with no breach reported by either side: 65% (F-20261029-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct · Ukrinform: air defences neutralise 71 Russian drones overnight, 28 Oct · Euromaidan Press: Izium and Zaporizhzhia strikes, 26 Oct · Ukranews: Russia ready to resume trilateral talks in November (Ushakov), 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · The war is now aimed at Saudi oil.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 28 Oct: two Houthi ballistic missiles hit the perimeter of Aden airport, wounding several civilians; a Saudi military aircraft there was not hit (police, via AFP). CORROBORATED
• Houthi media say Saudi strikes killed 14 and wounded 15 in Jawf province ("preliminary toll"). REPORTED
• The coalition says it intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and the Eastern Province. STATEMENT
• Ras Tanura: the Houthis claimed "massive fires" on 27 Oct; Saudi Arabia confirmed none of the claimed hits. UNVERIFIED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01) · Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude output or exports, 14–31 Oct: 30% (F-20261014-01)

Sources: The New Arab / AFP: Houthis say deadly Saudi strikes hit Yemen as they target Aden, 28 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi-led coalition downs Houthi missiles and drones, 27 Oct · Anadolu: Houthis claim attack on Ras Tanura, 27 Oct · Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 87 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · One strike, five different death tolls.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Nyala toll is disputed. Witnesses told AP hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the market; an army-allied spokesman called it a "precise and targeted airstrike" on recruits. MSF says 21 of the wounded it saw wore civilian clothes. DISPUTED
• One year after El Fasher fell to the RSF, the UN fact-finding mission says it found the "hallmarks of genocide" there and warns of sieges in Kordofan and Blue Nile. STATEMENT
• An RSF drone strike on Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat substation left much of the capital without power for 12+ hours (27 Oct). CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 79 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Gulf allies told to brace for a campaign.

What moved: M 18→19: the WSJ reports the US told Gulf allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign against Iran after the midterms; Trump: "anything's possible"

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only. Putin hosted Pezeshkian and Qatar's emir in Moscow (27 Oct) to discuss "the latest on the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz". Iran's Bagheri Kani sets seven conditions before new talks. No meeting with the US scheduled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The WSJ reports the US warned several Gulf allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign against Iran after the 3 Nov midterms. Trump on strikes after the vote: "anything's possible." REPORTED
• CENTCOM: the main Hormuz transit routes are "cleared of sea mines by US forces and remain so", rejecting Iranian-media reports of ships hitting mines. The IRGC says a supertanker hit a mine off Oman. DISPUTED
• Reuters, citing Pentagon figures: US spending on the Iran war has passed $47 billion. REPORTED
• In Moscow, Pezeshkian told Putin the region can solve its problems "without relying on the United States". STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov: 10% (F-20261008-01) · US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 55% (F-20261025-01)

Sources: Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct · Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 72 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Tigray is at war again.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• TDF and Amhara Fano forces reportedly took Abergele by 23 Oct; ENDF advanced from Abiy Addi towards Yechila and is pushing from Shire towards Sheraro. REPORTED
• TDF re-entered Rama on 22 Oct (ACLED); ENDF took Semema, Zana and Abiy Addi on 20–22 Oct. REPORTED
• An ENDF drone strike in Finarwa killed four civilians on 21 Oct. REPORTED
• No new reporting after 23 Oct in this collection: the score holds. NOT COVERED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct: 60% (F-20261016-01) · Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct: 8% (F-20261009-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5. REPORTED
• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED
• Quadcopter drones set fire to a displaced camp at Shujayea junction; more than 200 families forced out (Ministry of Public Works). REPORTED
• Israeli outlets say the IDF and Shin Bet killed a Hamas intelligence commander and an engineering commander in Gaza City. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 62 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron locked down for a sixth day.

What moved: C 15→16: UNRWA says the Hebron incursions have displaced nearly 5,000 Palestinians and calls the lockdown "collective punishment"

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• UNRWA: Israel's incursions into Hebron have displaced nearly 5,000 Palestinians; a "near-total lockdown across large parts of Hebron" amounts to "collective punishment". STATEMENT
• 28 Oct: raids across the Hebron governorate and in Fawwar camp; arrests in Tulkarem; home demolitions protested in Beita; homes in Burin turned into military posts. REPORTED
• The operation followed the 23 Oct attack near Hebron that killed two Israeli soldiers; troops killed both gunmen. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Israel: Near-final count (CEC, 28 Oct): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 26, Yashar! 21, Joint List 12, B'Yachad 12. Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu. Yair Golan: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." A minority government, a unity deal or another election are all possible; official results 4 Nov. REPORTED — Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Korean peninsula: No ballistic launch reported since 12 Oct. NOT COVERED
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

24 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 24 open

No forecasts were due today.

F-20261029-01. For: both sides observing it at 30+ hours; it is narrow, humanitarian and short. Against: it sits on an active front line where shelling is routine, and either side may allege a breach. Resolution: no breach alleged by Ukrainian or Russian officials, or reported by two independent outlets, from 27 Oct to the end of 1 Nov 2026.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• Sudan: AP reports that witnesses say hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the Nyala market, and an army-allied force claims 150+ recruits killed. Yesterday's card led with the rights-group figure of 100+ civilians; the toll is now carried as DISPUTED with all five counts, and the combatant share is unknown.
• Israel's election: the near-final count differs from yesterday's half-count figures (55/49/16 then; 53/48/19 now). Double-envelope ballots are still being counted.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct · Ukrinform: air defences neutralise 71 Russian drones overnight, 28 Oct · Euromaidan Press: Izium and Zaporizhzhia strikes, 26 Oct · Ukranews: Russia ready to resume trilateral talks in November (Ushakov), 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct

Yemen war: The New Arab / AFP: Houthis say deadly Saudi strikes hit Yemen as they target Aden, 28 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi-led coalition downs Houthi missiles and drones, 27 Oct · Anadolu: Houthis claim attack on Ras Tanura, 27 Oct · Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct

Sudan civil war: AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct · Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-074 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (70.75) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 24 forecasts open