RAGE INDEX — 30 October 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-075 · RAGE Intel · Friday, 30 October 2026 · Daily#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 30 Oct 2026, 10:00 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 30 Oct 09:00 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 24#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 71.00 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 852, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-074: +0.25 (was 70.75)

Verdict. The world number holds at 71. Ukraine rose two to 92, its highest yet, after a Russian drone hit a crowded rail platform in Dnipro. Yemen rose one as a Houthi drone was shot down over the Makkah region. Eleven of twelve wars are getting worse.

The day. A Russian drone killed at least 14 people on a platform at Dnipro's main station as a train boarded; at least 19 were killed across Ukraine on Thursday. Ukraine sent 613 drones towards Moscow, Russia says. Saudi Arabia shot down a Houthi drone over the Makkah region. Hebron's siege entered its seventh day.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Sudan, Iran, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Gaza, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  92  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  90  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  █████████████████░░░  87  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  79  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ██████████████░░░░░░  72  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  62  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  71     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 92 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · A rail platform hit as a train boarded.

What moved: M 14→16: a Russian drone hit a crowded Dnipro rail platform (14 killed); 19 killed across Ukraine on 29 Oct; Ukraine sent 613 drones towards Moscow, Russia says

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 29 Oct: a jet-powered Russian drone hit a platform at Dnipro's main station as a train prepared to leave for Zaporizhzhia: at least 14 killed and 14 injured, including an 11-year-old boy. Zelensky: "horrific". CONFIRMED
• Elsewhere on 29 Oct: two teenagers killed in Chernihiv and three people in an apartment building in Kremenchuk. CONFIRMED
• Russia says 613 Ukrainian drones flew towards Moscow overnight (231 downed on approach to the city) and 1,214 across its regions, as Moscow hosted 22+ African leaders. STATEMENT
• The Oleshky local ceasefire holds with no reported violations; a Ukrainian aid delegation travelled to the town. Talks with US mediation are expected next month. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: The Oleshky local ceasefire runs to 1 Nov with no breach reported by either side: 75% (F-20261029-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct · Euronews: drone attack on railway station, 29 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 90 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · A Houthi drone over Makkah.

What moved: M 16→17: a Houthi drone intercepted over the Makkah region and a cruise missile towards the western region (29–30 Oct); ballistic-missile debris over Riyadh

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The coalition says Saudi air defences destroyed a Houthi drone over the Makkah region (announced 30 Oct) and a cruise missile aimed at the western region (29 Oct). STATEMENT
• 29 Oct: debris from two intercepted ballistic missiles fell over Riyadh; one civilian lightly injured, a house and a car damaged (Saudi Civil Defence). CONFIRMED
• The Houthi health ministry says a Saudi strike killed 12 and critically injured 3 in al-Barah, Taiz province (initial toll, 29 Oct). No Saudi comment. REPORTED
• 28 Oct: two Houthi missiles hit the perimeter of Aden airport, wounding several civilians. CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01) · Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude output or exports, 14–31 Oct: 25% (F-20261014-01)

Sources: Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct · The New Arab / AFP: Houthis say deadly Saudi strikes hit Yemen as they target Aden, 28 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 87 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · One strike, five different death tolls.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Nyala toll is disputed. Witnesses told AP hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the market; an army-allied spokesman called it a "precise and targeted airstrike" on recruits. MSF says 21 of the wounded it saw wore civilian clothes. DISPUTED
• One year after El Fasher fell to the RSF, the UN fact-finding mission says it found the "hallmarks of genocide" there and warns of sieges in Kordofan and Blue Nile. STATEMENT
• An RSF drone strike on Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat substation left much of the capital without power for 12+ hours (27 Oct). CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 79 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Gulf allies told to brace for a campaign.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only. Putin hosted Pezeshkian and Qatar's emir in Moscow (27 Oct) to discuss "the latest on the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz". Iran's Bagheri Kani sets seven conditions before new talks. No meeting with the US scheduled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The WSJ reports the US warned several Gulf allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign against Iran after the 3 Nov midterms. Trump on strikes after the vote: "anything's possible." REPORTED
• WBUR reports the US is sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister after Israel's inconclusive vote. REPORTED
• CENTCOM: the main Hormuz transit routes are "cleared of sea mines by US forces and remain so", rejecting Iranian-media reports of ships hitting mines. The IRGC says a supertanker hit a mine off Oman. DISPUTED
• Reuters, citing Pentagon figures: US spending on the Iran war has passed $47 billion. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov: 10% (F-20261008-01) · US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 55% (F-20261025-01)

Sources: WBUR Here & Now: Is the US preparing to attack Iran?, 29 Oct · Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct · Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 72 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Tigray is at war again.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• TDF and Amhara Fano forces reportedly took Abergele by 23 Oct; ENDF advanced from Abiy Addi towards Yechila and is pushing from Shire towards Sheraro. REPORTED
• TDF re-entered Rama on 22 Oct (ACLED); ENDF took Semema, Zana and Abiy Addi on 20–22 Oct. REPORTED
• An ENDF drone strike in Finarwa killed four civilians on 21 Oct. REPORTED
• No new reporting after 23 Oct in this collection: the score holds. NOT COVERED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct: 45% (F-20261016-01) · Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct: 5% (F-20261009-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• An Israeli strike hit the Ministry of Economy building in al-Mawasi, west of Rafah: 4 killed, at least 15 wounded. REPORTED
• 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5. REPORTED
• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED
• Quadcopter drones set fire to a displaced camp at Shujayea junction; more than 200 families forced out (Ministry of Public Works). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 62 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · Hebron under siege for a seventh day.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Hebron's governor: 537 families (3,361 people) forced from their homes, including 232 infants; municipal figures put about 5,000 people from 780 families affected. 262,000 students moved to remote learning. STATEMENT
• The Palestinian Prisoners Society reports 110 detentions in Hebron governorate in six days. Two children were shot in Qalandiya camp (Red Crescent). REPORTED
• Settlers attacked US journalist Jasper Nathaniel and two activists in Masafer Yatta; Nathaniel was then arrested. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group. STATEMENT
• The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south. REPORTED
• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Israel: Near-final count (CEC, 28 Oct): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 26, Yashar! 21, Joint List 12, B'Yachad 12. Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu. Yair Golan: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." A minority government, a unity deal or another election are all possible; official results 4 Nov. REPORTED — Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Korean peninsula: No ballistic launch reported since 12 Oct. NOT COVERED
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

24 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 24 open

No forecasts were due today.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• No corrections today.
• Method: the new carousel map (slide 02) is a locator map. Each dot marks the approximate centre of a war's fighting, not a front line; the Levant wars share one label.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct · Euronews: drone attack on railway station, 29 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct

Yemen war: Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct · The New Arab / AFP: Houthis say deadly Saudi strikes hit Yemen as they target Aden, 28 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

Sudan civil war: AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: WBUR Here & Now: Is the US preparing to attack Iran?, 29 Oct · Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct · Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-075 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (71.00) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 24 forecasts open