RAGE INDEX — August 16, 2026
RIX-2026-002 · RAGE INDEX · Elevated · Updated 2026-08-16 · 12 min read
RIX-2026-002 · RAGE Intel · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 09:00 Beirut
Read time: ~12 minutes · Methodology v1.0
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INDEX
65 · ELEVATED
Prior close: 64 · 24h change: +1 7-day range: 64–65 (n=2) · 30-day mean: unavailable — second issue under Methodology v1.0
Methodology note. This is the second issue scored under the five-factor rubric introduced in RIX-2026-001. With only two data points, range and mean statistics remain low-confidence; a usable 7-day range will populate by RIX-2026-007.
Analysis
| Theater | Score | Band | Δ 24h | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 85 | 🔴 HIGH | +4 | 0.22 | 18.70 |
| Eastern Europe & Black Sea | 80 | 🔴 HIGH | +2 | 0.20 | 16.00 |
| Africa | 74 | 🟠 ELEVATED | −2 ▼ | 0.14 | 10.36 |
| Indo-Pacific | 56 | 🟠 ELEVATED | +2 | 0.22 | 12.32 |
| South & Central Asia | 41 | 🟡 GUARDED | 0 | 0.12 | 4.92 |
| Americas | 30 | 🟡 GUARDED | 0 | 0.10 | 3.00 |
| RAGE INDEX | 65 | 🟠 ELEVATED | +1 | 1.00 | 65.30 |
Band change flagged. Africa drops from 🔴 HIGH to 🟠 ELEVATED — the first band crossing since methodology launch. This is not a claim that Sudan improved; it reflects 48 hours without a confirmed new RSF assault, against a background of the war's worst siege conditions in months, plus a modest positive signal from the DRC track. See Africa section for the case this may be premature.
Analysis
WHAT CHANGED IN 24 HOURS
- Hormuz went from rhetoric to material action. A vessel affiliated with UAE state oil company ADNOC was struck transiting the strait; the UK Maritime Trade Operations separately logged a projectile hitting the hull of a bulk carrier. The UAE formally blamed Iran. This is the "material Iranian response" this desk flagged yesterday as the test of whether words would convert to action. They did.
Confirmed - Lebanon had its deadliest day since the June truce. Israeli strikes on Ansar and Deir al-Zahrani killed 11 people including three children, after Israel said Hezbollah wounded three IDF soldiers in the security zone. Hezbollah has threatened retaliation; Lebanon's president called the strikes a message aimed at the next round of US-sponsored talks.
Confirmed - Ukraine's deep-strike campaign reached further into Russia. Domestically produced Flamingo missiles hit the Savasleyka airbase (~700km inside Russia, home to MiG-31K Kinzhal carriers) and a Roscosmos facility in Samara; Russia shut down its Novorossiysk Black Sea export terminal after a separate drone attack.
Confirmed - Iran and Oman are reportedly narrowing a Hormuz management deal even as ship attacks mount — a genuine diplomatic thread inside an otherwise escalatory 24 hours.
Developing - Witkoff and Kushner's first Kyiv visit is reportedly close to confirmed, timed to Ukraine's 24 August Independence Day — the most concrete sign yet that the US diplomatic track on Ukraine is reactivating after weeks focused on Iran.
Developing - Taiwan's post-Han Kuang PLA activity is falling, not spiking — 18 sorties (13 Aug) → 9 (14 Aug) → 4 (15 Aug) — even as Ulchi Freedom Shield opens tomorrow and North Korea logs its 11th suspected missile test of the year.
Confirmed
PRIMARY THREAT VECTOR
The cycle's defining pattern is the Hormuz standoff's transition from words to weapons, arriving on the same day Lebanon suffered its worst violence since its own truce. Analysis
Yesterday's issue flagged a single test: would Iran's rhetorical claim of control over the strait produce a material act — vessel seizure, mining, or an attack on Gulf-state infrastructure? It did, within 24 hours, twice — an ADNOC-affiliated tanker and a separately reported bulk-carrier hull strike. Trump's "US territory" remark and the IRGC's rebuttal are no longer the story; they are the noise around a strait where two attacks now confirm the pattern of the prior five months, not a departure from it. Confirmed
Lebanon moved in parallel and for its own reasons. Eleven dead in the deadliest single day since the June ceasefire, an explicit Hezbollah threat to respond, and a Lebanese presidency accusing Israel of timing the strikes to pressure the next round of US-brokered talks — this is a second front testing whether the region's post-Iran-war truces hold under sustained pressure, not a single incident. Developing
Against both, Ukraine's campaign is the quiet counter-example: deep strikes are precise, sourced, and militarily coherent (an airbase housing missile carriers, a state space-and-missile contractor, an export terminal), and a genuine diplomatic overture — the first Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit — is taking shape alongside it. Escalation and negotiation are not mutually exclusive this cycle; in Eastern Europe they are running on parallel tracks. Analysis
THEATER ASSESSMENTS
Middle East
85/100 🔴 HIGH · prior 81 (+4)
| Kinetic | Trajectory | Great-Power | Civ/Econ | Off-Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
Status: Material vessel attacks confirm the Hormuz threat vector · Lebanon's deadliest day since June truce · Rome talks stalled
Confirmed — The UAE Foreign Ministry said a vessel affiliated with state oil company ADNOC was attacked while crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, blaming Iran for what it called a "flagrant violation" of international law. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said Saturday it was notified of a projectile striking the hull of a bulk carrier in the strait. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has fallen to as few as six vessels on some days this cycle, per Hill reporting citing maritime trackers.
Developing — Bloomberg reports Iran and Oman appear to be narrowing a deal on how the strait should be managed, agreeing on specific routes — a genuine negotiating thread that predates and now runs alongside the renewed attacks. This sits awkwardly next to Iran's continued rejection of talks on the broader interim agreement absent a US compensation concession, and Trump's own added compensation demand. Both main-track preconditions remain non-startable.
Confirmed — Israeli strikes on the southern Lebanese villages of Ansar and Deir al-Zahrani killed at least 11 people, including three children and two women, in the deadliest single day since the Israel-Hezbollah truce took effect in June. Israel said the strikes followed a Hezbollah attack that seriously wounded three IDF soldiers in the security zone along the Ali Taher Ridge; it later acknowledged civilian casualties, saying Hezbollah "deliberately put civilians in that military compound" — a senior Radwan Force commander, Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, was killed along with family members. Hezbollah has vowed the strikes will be "met with what they deserve." Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun accused Israel of sending a message ahead of the next round of US-sponsored talks, the latest of which — held in Rome — concluded without agreement.
Unverified — Qatar has denied a claim by an Iranian military commander that it is holding three Iranian airmen from two downed aircraft. The UAE's ADNOC attack and the bulk-carrier strike are both single-sourced to initial statements pending independent corroboration of attribution and damage extent.
| DECODE | The rhetorical phase of the Hormuz standoff has ended. Two vessel attacks in 24 hours, following a five-month pattern of Iranian shipping attacks and US retaliatory strikes, means the "US territory" exchange was cover noise, not signal. The signal is that Iran is still willing to act against Gulf-state-flagged shipping even while negotiating with Oman on strait management — two tracks that do not require each other to resolve. |
| DOMINATE | Lebanon is now the more volatile of the two fronts in trajectory terms: Hezbollah has explicitly threatened retaliation for the first time since routine ceasefire-violation strikes began in June, and a Lebanese head of state has publicly framed Israeli action as negotiation sabotage. That combination — an explicit threat plus a stalled US-brokered track — is the highest-risk configuration this theatre has produced since the truce. |
| DELIVER | Track for a Hezbollah response in the 72 hours following the threat — this is now the single highest-value indicator in Lebanon. Track whether the Iran-Oman route agreement produces any measurable change in Hormuz transit volume, independent of the attack tempo. Track Rome-round follow-up scheduling. |
Eastern Europe & Black Sea
80/100 🔴 HIGH · prior 78 (+2)
| Kinetic | Trajectory | Great-Power | Civ/Econ | Off-Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Status: Ukrainian deep strikes reach further into Russia · Novorossiysk export terminal shut down · First Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit reportedly imminent
Confirmed — Ukrainian forces struck Russia's Savasleyka military airbase in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast — roughly 700km from Ukraine and a base for MiG-31K jets capable of carrying Kinzhal ballistic missiles — using domestically produced Flamingo cruise missiles, President Zelensky confirmed. A parallel strike hit the Progress Rocket Space Center in Samara, a key Roscosmos facility. Russia struck back overnight with 152 Shahed-type drones and loitering munitions per Ukraine's Air Force; explosions were reported in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district early Sunday with insufficient warning time for residents to shelter.
Confirmed — Reuters reported Russia shut down its Novorossiysk Black Sea export terminal following a drone attack, continuing the pattern of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy and export infrastructure (Ust-Luga, now Novorossiysk) as its most consistent asymmetric lever.
Developing — Multiple outlets (Kyiv Post, Ukrainska Pravda, Bloomberg via TASS) report Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's first visit to Kyiv is nearing confirmation, expected in the second half of August around the 24 August Independence Day anniversary — timing that would put US envoys in Kyiv for the first time since the war's diplomatic track pivoted toward Iran earlier this year. A Ukrainian official cautioned arrangements remain unfinished. Zelensky separately said Ukraine's international partners have developed a new pressure-based plan intended to end the war's active phase before winter, though Washington has not yet formally received it.
Unverified — Ukraine's General Staff, via Ukrinform, now claims cumulative Russian losses of approximately 1,465,810 personnel, including 1,370 in the preceding 24 hours. Zelensky has separately said he expects at least 30,000 Russian losses in August. These remain belligerent figures, not independently verified.
| DECODE | Deep strikes and diplomacy are not competing signals here — they are running in parallel deliberately. Ukraine's strike tempo against Russian military-industrial and energy-export targets gives it leverage precisely as US envoys prepare their first direct Kyiv engagement in months; each strike is also a data point Witkoff and Kushner will be shown on the ground. |
| DOMINATE | Novorossiysk joins Ust-Luga as a second major Russian Black Sea export node hit inside two weeks — this is now a campaign, not isolated strikes, and it is Ukraine's most domestically sustainable pressure lever against a Russian economy already absorbing eight 2026 sanctions packages. |
| DELIVER | Track whether the Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit is formally confirmed and whether it includes a Moscow leg. Track any further Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea export infrastructure as the campaign's next node. Track Patriot/interceptor resupply announcements — still the highest-value unresolved indicator for Ukrainian air-defence sustainability into winter. |
Africa
74/100 🟠 ELEVATED · prior 76 (−2, band change from HIGH)
| Kinetic | Trajectory | Great-Power | Civ/Econ | Off-Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 18 |
Status: No confirmed new assault on El Obeid in the past 24–48 hours · control of Umm Arada still contested · DRC-Doha process shows incremental forward motion
Developing — No new reporting confirms further ground movement on Umm Arada or the Hashaba Hills since the 14 August dawn assault detailed in RIX-2026-001. This is an absence-of-reporting finding, not a confirmed lull, and should be read against a siege that has degraded El Obeid's power, fuel, food and water for months. Treat the score reduction as reflecting reporting density, not resolution.
Confirmed — On the DRC track, Kinshasa released 15 M23 detainees to the AFC/M23 coalition on 10 August as a confidence-building measure under the Doha framework — the most concrete forward step in weeks. Analysts quoted by Channel Africa and Al Jazeera caution the handover is symbolic absent compromise on governance and security guarantees, and deep disagreements continue to stall the broader process ahead of the 18 August deadline referenced in the prior cycle's forecast.
Unverified — Attribution for the 12 August multi-city drone campaign (El Obeid, Khartoum, Atbara, Bahri) remains withdrawn per the prior cycle's correction; no new attribution reporting has emerged in this window.
| DECODE | A quiet 24–48 hours around El Obeid is consistent with either a genuine operational pause after two repelled assaults, or a reporting gap in a conflict zone with degraded communications infrastructure. The rubric scores what is confirmed, which is why the number moved — but this desk flags that as a methodology artifact worth watching, not a claim the siege has eased. |
| DOMINATE | The DRC prisoner handover is the most tangible Doha-track progress since the framework's signature — small, reversible, and still short of the governance and security-guarantee compromises that would constitute a real breakthrough. |
| DELIVER | Confirm whether the quiet at El Obeid reflects an operational pause or a reporting gap — the two carry very different implications for the next 72 hours. Track the 18 August DRC deadline; expect it to be missed or quietly extended rather than met. |
Indo-Pacific
56/100 🟠 ELEVATED · prior 54 (+2)
| Kinetic | Trajectory | Great-Power | Civ/Econ | Off-Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 18 | 4 | 17 |
Status: PLA sortie counts falling post-Han Kuang · Ulchi Freedom Shield opens 17 August · North Korea's 11th suspected missile test of 2026
Why this scores higher despite falling PLA activity. Sortie counts are trending down (18 → 9 → 4 over three days), but Great-Power exposure rises because the theatre is about to run two simultaneous major exercise cycles — Ulchi Freedom Shield opening tomorrow against a North Korea that has now tested ballistic missiles twice in five days. Falling PLA tempo and rising peninsula tempo net to a small increase, not a wash.
Analysis
Confirmed — Taiwan's MND recorded four PLA aircraft sorties and eight PLAN vessels around the island up to 6am Saturday, three of four sorties crossing the median line — down sharply from 18 sorties/11 vessels on 13 August and 9 sorties/12 vessels on 14 August. Post-Han Kuang PLA shadowing activity is de-escalating faster than the prior cycle anticipated.
Confirmed — North Korea fired a ballistic missile from the Wonsan area on 12 August that flew over 700km — its second launch in under a week and 11th suspected ballistic test of 2026 by South Korean count — timed to the announcement of Ulchi Freedom Shield, which begins Monday 17 August and runs 11 days with roughly 18,000 South Korean troops participating. Pyongyang did not confirm the 12 August launch through state media within its usual window, which analysts read as a possible test failure or a deliberate departure from routine disclosure.
Confirmed — US Indo-Pacific Command said it is "consulting closely with our allies and partners" following the missile activity; Japan's Defence Minister said the missile did not reach Japanese territory but lodged a protest over the pattern of repeated launches.
| DECODE | Beijing's post-exercise posture is de-escalating on schedule, consistent with prior-year patterns where PLA shadowing activity spikes during a Taiwanese exercise window and recedes afterward. The theatre's risk is shifting north to the peninsula, not resolving. |
| DOMINATE | North Korea's decision to skip its usual same-day-or-next-day state media disclosure on the 12 August launch is itself a data point — either a technical failure Pyongyang doesn't want documented, or a deliberate ambiguity play timed to UFS. Either reading argues for closer, not lighter, monitoring through the exercise's opening days. |
| DELIVER | Track North Korean statements and any further launch activity in the 17–20 August UFS opening window — this is the highest-value indicator for the theatre this cycle. Track whether Taiwan's falling PLA sortie count holds through the UFS period or PLA activity rises in sympathy. |
QUIET THEATERS
Analysis— Source density for both theatres remained low this cycle. Scores are carried forward unchanged from RIX-2026-001 and should be treated as lower-confidence than the four assessed above.
- South & Central Asia — 41 🟡 GUARDED. No change. India–Pakistan LoC dynamics stable; no reported ceasefire violations or incidents in window. Afghanistan remains a chronic terrorism-export concern rather than an acute crisis.
- Americas — 30 🟡 GUARDED. No change. Counter-narcotics operations and bilateral security cooperation continue along established corridors. No escalatory developments identified.
EXERCISES & DEPLOYMENTS
| Exercise | Participants | Dates | Status | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulchi Freedom Shield 2026 | US, South Korea (~18,000 ROK troops) | 17–27 Aug 2026 | Opens tomorrow | First major US-ROK exercise since North Korea's back-to-back 6/12 Aug missile tests; combined, joint, all-domain and interagency design |
| PLA post-Han Kuang activity | China | Ongoing, de-escalating | Active but declining | Sortie counts fallen from 18 (13 Aug) to 4 (15 Aug); watch for a sympathy spike as UFS opens |
| North Korea missile testing tempo | North Korea | 6, 11–12 Aug 2026 launches | Ongoing | 11th suspected ballistic test of 2026; 12 Aug launch undisclosed by KCNA within usual window — anomalous |
| Han Kuang 42 | Taiwan — all branches, ~5,000 reservists | 5–14 Aug 2026 | Concluded | Carried forward from RIX-2026-001; M1A2T and Littoral Combat Command debut |
FORECASTS
Resolutions due this cycle: none — earliest RIX-2026-001 resolution window (F-20260815-02, greater Khartoum drone strikes) closes 17 Aug.
Carried forward from RIX-2026-001
| ID | Statement | P (15 Aug) | P (16 Aug) | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-20260815-01 | RSF forces hold Umm Arada per ≥2 Tier 1–3 sources | 45% | 40% ▼ | 22 Aug |
| F-20260815-02 | Drone strikes reported on greater Khartoum on 16 Aug, per ≥2 Tier 1–3 sources | 50% | 35% ▼ | 17 Aug |
| F-20260815-03 | North Korea conducts a missile launch or issues a state-media statement naming Ulchi Freedom Shield, 17–20 Aug | 70% | 75% ▲ | 21 Aug |
| F-20260815-04 | US or Iranian forces fire on the other in, or within 50nm of, the Strait of Hormuz before 22 Aug | 15% | 30% ▲ | 22 Aug |
| F-20260815-05 | Taiwan's MND reports ≥25 PLA aircraft in a single 24-hour window before 22 Aug | 40% | 25% ▼ | 22 Aug |
| F-20260815-06 | DRC–M23 comprehensive agreement signed by 18 Aug per Doha mediators | 10% | 8% ▼ | 19 Aug |
| F-20260815-07 | A new Patriot or equivalent interceptor package for Ukraine is publicly announced before 15 Sep | 45% | 45% — | 15 Sep |
| F-20260815-08 | Verified Israeli withdrawal begins from any Gaza governorate before 15 Sep | 10% | 10% — | 15 Sep |
New this cycle
| ID | Statement | P | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| F-20260816-01 | A further Iran-attributed or Iran-linked attack on commercial shipping occurs in or near the Strait of Hormuz before 22 Aug | 65% | 22 Aug |
| F-20260816-02 | Hezbollah conducts a retaliatory strike on Israeli military personnel or territory before 22 Aug | 40% | 22 Aug |
| F-20260816-03 | Witkoff and/or Kushner's first Kyiv visit is confirmed to have occurred before 26 Aug | 55% | 26 Aug |
| F-20260816-04 | Iran and Oman announce a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes before 5 Sep | 30% | 5 Sep |
Probabilities are stated in 5% increments. Finer precision on subjective forecasts is not defensible. Rolling Brier score publishes monthly from the first resolution cycle.
CRITICAL PRIORITIES
0–24 Hours
| Theater | Priority |
|---|---|
| Middle East | Independent corroboration of the ADNOC vessel attack and bulk-carrier hull strike — both currently single-sourced to initial statements. |
| Middle East | Any Hezbollah retaliatory action in southern Lebanon or along the security zone. |
| Eastern Europe | Confirmation of the Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit's dates and whether a Moscow leg follows. |
| Indo-Pacific | Ulchi Freedom Shield's opening-day posture and any North Korean statement or launch response. |
24–72 Hours
| Theater | Priority |
|---|---|
| Africa | Confirm whether the quiet around El Obeid reflects an operational pause or a reporting gap — resolve before the next issue treats it as de-escalation. |
| Africa | DRC–M23: confirm whether the 18 Aug deadline is formally missed or quietly extended. |
| Middle East | Rome-round follow-up scheduling and whether Iran-Oman route talks produce a measurable Hormuz transit change. |
| Eastern Europe | Any further Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea export infrastructure following Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. |
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
RAGE X ANALYSIS
The index reads 65 — ELEVATED, up one point — and the headline number understates how much changed underneath it in 24 hours. Analysis
Yesterday's issue identified one clean test: would Hormuz rhetoric convert into material action. It did, twice, within a day — an ADNOC-affiliated tanker and a bulk-carrier hull strike, both attributed to Iran by the parties involved. That is not a new pattern; it is the same five-month pattern from the CRS timeline reasserting itself the moment this desk finished writing that it hadn't. The lesson is methodological as much as substantive: a single quiet day in an active theatre is not evidence of change, and this issue's own Africa score reduction is a live example of exactly that risk running the other way. Analysis
Lebanon's worst day since its June truce arrived on the same 24 hours, and the two are connected only by proximity, not causation — which is itself worth stating plainly, because the temptation to read a single "Middle East escalation" narrative across Hormuz and Lebanon simultaneously is strong and not well supported by the reporting. Iran's shipping campaign and Hezbollah's ceasefire violations are separate actors with separate logics; both happen to be under pressure from the same US-led diplomatic architecture, which is the more defensible connective thread. Analysis
Africa's band change — HIGH to ELEVATED — is flagged deliberately as the number this desk trusts least this cycle. It reflects 48 hours without confirmed new fighting at El Obeid, in a conflict zone where communications infrastructure is degraded and reporting density has been consistently the lowest of the four assessed theatres. Readers should not treat this as a claim that the siege has eased; treat it as a claim that this desk could not confirm it hadn't. That distinction is the entire point of a rubric-driven index over a narrative one.
Eastern Europe is the theatre where escalation and diplomacy are least in tension. Ukraine's strikes on Savasleyka and Samara are precise, militarily coherent, and running in parallel with the most concrete sign yet of a reactivated US diplomatic track. Whether that combination produces leverage or just more strikes is the single most consequential open question heading into the autumn window Zelensky himself has named as Kyiv's target for ending the war's active phase.
CORRECTIONS
No corrections are issued against RAGE INDEX RIX-2026-001 this cycle. All prior attributions and figures stand as published, pending ongoing verification of items still marked Unverified or Developing.
SOURCE APPENDIX
Middle East — CNBC, 15 Aug (T3: Iran rebuffs Trump territorial claim, Deputy FM Gharibabadi statement, ADNOC vessel attack) · Bloomberg, 15 Aug (T3: Hormuz ship-attack tempo, Iran-Oman route negotiations) · CNN live coverage, 15 Aug (T3: UAE ADNOC statement, Houthi Mokha port suspension, Qatar denial on Iranian pilots) · Washington Post, 15 Aug (T3: vessel attack, Lebanon strikes, UAE/Houthi context) · Fox News live coverage, 15 Aug (T3: Iranian Chief Justice statement, Trump remarks) · Reuters via UPI / France 24 / Times of Israel / The National / PBS / AP, 15 Aug (T3: Lebanon strike toll, Netanyahu office statement, Hezbollah threat, Aoun response, Rome talks).
Eastern Europe & Black Sea — Kyiv Independent, 15 Aug (T1 claimant, unverified: Savasleyka and Samara strikes, Flamingo missiles, overnight drone tally, Kyiv strikes, General Staff loss figures) · Kyiv Post, multiple, 8–15 Aug (T3: Zelensky autumn-pressure plan, Novorossiysk shutdown, deep-strike campaign framing) · Bloomberg / The Hill / Ukrainska Pravda / Yahoo-The Hill, 8–15 Aug (T3: Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit reporting, sourcing caveats).
Africa — Sudan Tribune, 14 Aug (T3: Umm Arada engagement, carried forward — no new confirmed reporting this cycle) · Channel Africa, 10 Aug (T3: DRC prisoner handover) · Al Jazeera Inside Story, 9 Aug (T3: Doha framework analysis, DRC process status).
Indo-Pacific — ROC MND via ANI / Tribune India / GlobalSecurity.org, 13–15 Aug (T1: PLA sortie and vessel counts) · NBC News / Al Jazeera / Korea Times / UPI / Fox News / The Diplomat, 11–12 Aug (T1/T3: North Korea missile launches, Ulchi Freedom Shield scale and schedule, USINDOPACOM and Japan MOD response).
South & Central Asia · Americas — Low source density this cycle. Scores carried forward unchanged from RIX-2026-001; treat as lower confidence.
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