RAGE INDEX — 31 October 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING
RAGE INDEX · RIX-2026-076 · Methodology v3.0 · Edition 2026-10-31 · Published 2026-10-31 · 28 min read
RAGE INDEX holds at 71 as Yemen climbs to 91 on six claimed Houthi strikes on Saudi oil sites, and tankers burn in Hormuz with Brent at $117.62.
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RIX-2026-076 · RAGE Intel · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Daily#
Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 31 Oct 11:30 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 25#
Decode. Dominate. Deliver.
🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.
1. THE WORLD NUMBER#
RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#
Precise: 71.08 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 853, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-075: +0.08 (was 71.00)
| Wars at full scale | Wars escalating | Wars calming | Ceasefire agreed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 · Ukraine, Yemen, Sudan | 11 of 12 | 1 · Lebanon | 2 · Gaza, Lebanon |
Verdict. The world number holds at 71. Yemen rose to 91 as the Houthis claimed six strikes on Saudi oil and airports in a day and pushed towards Aden. In Hormuz, tankers are burning again and Brent is at $117.62. Iran is weighing a Qatari peace draft, and the Pentagon is preparing strike options for after Tuesday's US midterms.
The day. Tankers burned in the Strait of Hormuz: the IRGC claims four; UKMTO confirms one vessel on fire off Oman, and the tanker Louise 1 was hit by limpet mines. The Houthis claimed six strikes on Saudi Arabia, including Abqaiq and Rabigh. Ukraine's toll from Thursday rose to 27 dead. Eleven forecasts close tonight and are scored in tomorrow's edition.
2. TODAY'S THREE#
| War | Why | |
|---|---|---|
| 🟥 Most dangerous | Russia–Ukraine · EL 92 | The deadliest day this month. Peace Track 2 (talks planned) |
| ⏫ Escalating fastest | Yemen war · ▲1 to EL 91 | Six claimed strikes, and a push towards Aden. M 17→18: the Houthis claim six strikes in one day, including Abqaiq and Rabigh for the first time, and a ground attack in Lahj, north of Aden; a drone was shot down over the Makkah region |
| 🕊️ Closest to a ceasefire | Israel–Lebanon · Peace Track 4/5 | Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep. EL 51. |
What moved#
| War | Move | EL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yemen war | ▲1 | 91 | M 17→18: the Houthis claim six strikes in one day, including Abqaiq and Rabigh for the first time, and a ground attack in Lahj, north of Aden; a drone was shot down over the Makkah region |
HOLD · no new data: Ukraine, Sudan, Iran, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Gaza, Sahel, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.
How to read this (30 seconds)#
- Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
- Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
- Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
- Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
- Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.
3. THE WAR BOARD#
| # | War | EL | Phase | Move | Trend | V | M | S | C | K | Peace Track | Latest deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia–Ukraine | 92 | 🟥 Full-scale war | = | ▲ | 20 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 20 | ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned | 29 Oct: 27 killed, 127 injured across Ukraine, incl. at least 15… |
| 2 | Yemen war | 91 | 🟥 Full-scale war | ▲1 | ▲ | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 17 | ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only | "Dozens" killed and wounded in Lahj ground fighting · 30 Oct (no… |
| 3 | Sudan civil war | 87 | 🟥 Full-scale war | = | ▲ | 20 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 12 | ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only | Nyala market strike, 26 Oct: 100+ killed (Emergency Lawyers) · 36… |
| 4 | US/Israel–Iran | 79 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 12 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 20 | ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only | No reliable daily count |
| 5 | Ethiopia wars | 72 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 15 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 10 | ○○○○○ 0 · No channel | 4 civilians killed in an ENDF drone strike in Finarwa · 21 Oct |
| 6 | Eastern Congo war | 70 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 13 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 10 | ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned | No reliable daily count |
| 7 | Israel–Gaza | 66 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 11 | 13 | 10 | 20 | 12 | ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed | 29 Oct: 4 killed, 15+ wounded in a strike on the Ministry of… |
| 8 | Sahel insurgency | 64 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 17 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 8 | ○○○○○ 0 · No channel | At least 48 killed (provisional tolls 48 to 70+) · five localities… |
| 9 | West Bank | 62 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 10 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 10 | ○○○○○ 0 · No channel | 23 Oct: 2 Israeli soldiers killed, 3 lightly wounded; both… |
| 10 | Myanmar civil war | 61 | 🔴 Active fighting | = | ▲ | 16 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 6 | ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only | 15 killed in an airstrike on Yesagyo · 16 Oct |
| 11 | Pakistan's wars | 58 | 🟠 Contested | = | ▲ | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | ○○○○○ 0 · No channel | 2 soldiers and 6 militants killed · D.I. Khan operation · 24 Oct |
| 12 | Israel–Lebanon | 51 | 🟠 Contested | = | ▼ | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed | No reliable daily count |
UKR ██████████████████░░ 92 ▲ PT ●●○○○
YEM ██████████████████░░ 91 ▲ PT ●○○○○
SDN █████████████████░░░ 87 ▲ PT ●○○○○
IRN ████████████████░░░░ 79 ▲ PT ●○○○○
ETH ██████████████░░░░░░ 72 ▲ PT ○○○○○
DRC ██████████████░░░░░░ 70 ▲ PT ●●○○○
GAZ █████████████░░░░░░░ 66 ▲ PT ●●●●○
SAH █████████████░░░░░░░ 64 ▲ PT ○○○○○
WBK ████████████░░░░░░░░ 62 ▲ PT ○○○○○
MMR ████████████░░░░░░░░ 61 ▲ PT ●○○○○
PAK ████████████░░░░░░░░ 58 ▲ PT ○○○○○
LBN ██████████░░░░░░░░░░ 51 ▼ PT ●●●●○
RIX ██████████████░░░░░░ 71 world average
4. WAR CARDS#
🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 92 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#
Russia · Ukraine · The deadliest day this month.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 20 | Daily mass strikes: about 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles and about 2,300 drones in a week (Zelensky). Mass-casualty anchor. |
| Momentum (M) | 16 | Escalating: cluster warheads on Kyiv (21–22 Oct), a widening Black Sea shipping campaign, Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia. |
| Spread (S) | 18 | Black Sea: 7 ships and 30 sailors hit in two weeks; Romania blames Russia for sinking the Khoryv off Constanța. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 18 | UN monitors: the first half of October was among the deadliest periods for civilians in 2026. |
| Global stakes (K) | 20 | Nuclear-armed party; NATO member waters; grain and shipping. |
| Escalation Level | 92 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 29 Oct: 27 killed, 127 injured across Ukraine, incl. at least 15 killed, 14 injured at Dnipro station; Kharkiv 4 killed; Kremenchuk 3 killed | Ukrainian authorities, via Kyiv Independent | CONFIRMED |
| Latest day (other side) | Dnipro station toll rose from 14 to at least 15 (Governor Hanzha) | Kyiv Independent, 30 Oct | CONFIRMED |
| Recent period | 328 civilians killed, 2,105 wounded · 1–15 Oct | UN HRMMU | CONFIRMED |
| Longest verified run | 2,570 civilians killed, 15,211 wounded · Jan–Sep 2026 | UN HRMMU (verified minimum) | CONFIRMED |
Ground update
- The 29 Oct toll rose to 27 killed and 127 injured across Ukraine, including at least 15 dead at Dnipro station; about 350,000 lost power in Dnipropetrovsk.
CONFIRMED - Overnight 29–30 Oct: Russia launched 113 Shahed-type drones (83 jet-powered), 4 guided missiles and ballistic missiles; 96 drones and 3 missiles were stopped (air force).
STATEMENT - The Oleshky local ceasefire, due to end on 1 Nov, still has no reported violations.
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: The Oleshky local ceasefire runs to 1 Nov with no breach reported by either side: 80% (F-20261029-01) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)
Sources: Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 27, injure 127 over past day, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct · Euronews: drone attack on railway station, 29 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct
🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 91 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#
Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · Six claimed strikes, and a push towards Aden.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 19 | Heavy: Saudi-backed 'Dawn of Yemen' forces claim 1,276 operations in 24 hours; the coalition says it destroyed 5 missile tunnels, 4 launchers and a depot. |
| Momentum (M) | 18 | Escalating: the Houthis claim a missile hit on Ras Tanura; 3 ballistic missiles at the Eastern Province and 7 drones intercepted on 26–27 Oct. |
| Spread (S) | 18 | Saudi territory struck repeatedly; UK Typhoons engaged; Egypt's parliament authorised military support for Saudi Arabia on 26 Oct. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 19 | About 260,000 displaced (OCHA); hospitals in Taiz under strain (WHO). |
| Global stakes (K) | 17 | Global energy: Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest refinery, plus Riyadh's airport and pumping stations targeted. |
| Escalation Level | 91 | Move: ▲1 · Trend ▲ |
What moved: M 17→18: the Houthis claim six strikes in one day, including Abqaiq and Rabigh for the first time, and a ground attack in Lahj, north of Aden; a drone was shot down over the Makkah region
Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | "Dozens" killed and wounded in Lahj ground fighting · 30 Oct (no breakdown). Riyadh: 1 wounded by shrapnel | Al-Ain (UAE media), via Jerusalem Post; Saudi Civil Defence | REPORTED |
| Latest day (other side) | Claim: about 382 Houthi fighters "neutralised" in 24 hours (no breakdown) | Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, via Middle East Eye | REPORTED |
| Recent period | At least 58 killed in the Houthi strike on a Shabwa training camp, 19 Oct (reports up to 75); at least 12 killed at Riyadh's airport earlier in October (Al Jazeera now says 13) | Local and Saudi authorities | DISPUTED |
| Longest verified run | 251 civilian casualties, including 57 killed, since the re-escalation | OHCHR | CONFIRMED |
Ground update
- 30 Oct: Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims six attacks: Ras Tanura, the Abqaiq Aramco facility, Riyadh's King Khalid airport, Dammam's King Fahd airport, the Rabigh refinery and a military HQ in Najran. No independent corroboration.
UNVERIFIED - The coalition says it destroyed two ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh; shrapnel wounded one citizen and damaged a house and a car (Saudi Civil Defence). A Houthi drone was shot down over the Makkah region.
CONFIRMED - UAE-linked media report a large Houthi ground attack in Lahj's al-Maqatirah district, 40–50 miles from Aden, with "dozens" killed and wounded on both sides.
REPORTED - In Taiz, more than 800,000 people are reported cut off from supplies; the Houthis hold 71 UN staff (Arab News).
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov: 45% (F-20261028-01) · Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude output or exports, 14–31 Oct: 15% (F-20261014-01)
Sources: Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone targeting Mecca, 30 Oct · Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct
🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 87 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#
SAF · RSF · One strike, five different death tolls.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 20 | Mass-casualty drone strikes in several states: at least 306 killed by drones in three weeks (UN). |
| Momentum (M) | 19 | Escalating: the double-tap strike at Dibab (18 Oct), Abyei (19 Oct), and on 26 Oct RSF drones hit power stations in four states. |
| Spread (S) | 16 | The Abyei strike hit the disputed Sudan–South Sudan border area; South Sudan gives a higher toll. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 20 | 13–14 million displaced; famine conditions; health system collapsed. Catastrophic anchor. |
| Global stakes (K) | 12 | Red Sea coast, Gulf and Egyptian stakes; arms supply from several states alleged. |
| Escalation Level | 87 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | Nyala market strike, 26 Oct: 100+ killed (Emergency Lawyers) · 36 bodies, 150 wounded (MSF) · 21+ (Sudan Doctors Network) · ~14 civilians (witness) · an army-allied force claims 150+ "militia recruits" killed | AP (unverified by AP) | DISPUTED |
| Recent period | At least 306 killed by drones · 1–21 Oct · incl. Dibab ≥139 (18 Oct) and Abyei >80 (19 Oct; South Sudan says 153) | OHCHR (Türk, 23 Oct) | CONFIRMED |
| Longest verified run | At least 59,000 killed since April 2023 | ACLED (recorded minimum) | REPORTED |
Ground update
- The Nyala toll is disputed. Witnesses told AP hundreds of RSF fighters had gathered at the market; an army-allied spokesman called it a "precise and targeted airstrike" on recruits. MSF says 21 of the wounded it saw wore civilian clothes.
DISPUTED - One year after El Fasher fell, Amnesty International publishes new testimony of unlawful killings, detention and torture of civilians under RSF control.
REPORTED - One year after El Fasher fell to the RSF, the UN fact-finding mission says it found the "hallmarks of genocide" there and warns of sieges in Kordofan and Blue Nile.
STATEMENT - An RSF drone strike on Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat substation left much of the capital without power for 12+ hours (27 Oct).
CORROBORATED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)
Sources: Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct
🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 79 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#
US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Tankers burn in Hormuz; a peace draft on the table.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 12 | Low direct killing this week, but shipping attacks continue and the IRGC struck Kurdish opposition sites in Iraq on 25 Oct. |
| Momentum (M) | 19 | Step towards escalation: Trump said "Maybe tomorrow… There's a possibility I will"; the WSJ reports the USS George Washington is being rearmed with bunker-busters. |
| Spread (S) | 18 | US blockade, attacks on tankers near Hormuz, strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan, US staff cuts at seven regional posts. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 10 | Shipping crews and Gulf residents exposed; no mass displacement reported this week. |
| Global stakes (K) | 20 | The Strait of Hormuz: Brent settled at $116.72 on 23 Oct. Iran's foreign minister says the strait's routes "will not be the same as they once were". |
| Escalation Level | 79 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only. Reuters: Qatari mediators gave Iran a new draft deal to end the war (25 Oct); a senior Iranian official denies receiving one and calls Qatar's ideas "unacceptable". A response is expected around 31 Oct.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | No reliable daily count | — | NOT COVERED |
| Recent period | 23 US service members dead since 28 Feb (11 by enemy fire, 12 non-hostile) | Pentagon, via CBS News | CONFIRMED |
| Longest verified run | No reliable overall count in this edition's sources | — | NOT COVERED |
Ground update
- 30 Oct: the IRGC says four tankers "caught fire and exploded" on "unauthorised routes" in Hormuz. UKMTO confirms one vessel on fire, 9 nm north of Khasab, Oman. The Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 caught fire after a small boat attached two limpet mines; no injuries.
CORROBORATED - FM Araghchi warns of an "earth-shattering blow" if Iran is attacked again. The Pentagon is presenting Trump with strike options for after the 3 Nov midterms.
STATEMENT - Brent rose to $117.62, on course for a fourth straight monthly gain (up nearly 14% in October).
REPORTED - Hegseth fired Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's top planner, over leaks of classified Iran and Ukraine policy; the case went to the Justice Department.
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 55% (F-20261025-01) · Iran publicly gives a formal response (accept, reject or counter) to the Qatari draft deal by 7 Nov: 55% (F-20261031-01)
Sources: Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; 'earth-shattering blow', 31 Oct · CBS News live: tankers strike mines; Hegseth fires top general; Qatar draft, 28–30 Oct · Fox News live: strike options, Louise 1, Brent $117.62, 30 Oct · WBUR Here & Now: Is the US preparing to attack Iran?, 29 Oct · Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct
🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 72 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#
Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Tigray is at war again.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 15 | Heavy fighting on several fronts: the TDF counter-offensive, drone strikes, Fano clashes in Amhara. |
| Momentum (M) | 17 | Step-change: TPLF forces retook Rama on 22 Oct; federal troops took Abiy Addi, Semema and Zana on 20–22 Oct. |
| Spread (S) | 15 | Eritrea cut ties; clashes near Moyale send refugees into Kenya. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 15 | Mekelle changed hands in early October; displacement into Kenya; the 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands. |
| Global stakes (K) | 10 | Horn of Africa and Red Sea access (Assab dispute). |
| Escalation Level | 72 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 4 civilians killed in an ENDF drone strike in Finarwa · 21 Oct | Critical Threats (23 Oct) | REPORTED |
| Recent period | No reliable count for the 2026 fighting | — | NOT COVERED |
| Longest verified run | No reliable count for the 2026 fighting | — | NOT COVERED |
Ground update
- TDF and Amhara Fano forces reportedly took Abergele by 23 Oct; ENDF advanced from Abiy Addi towards Yechila and is pushing from Shire towards Sheraro.
REPORTED - TDF re-entered Rama on 22 Oct (ACLED); ENDF took Semema, Zana and Abiy Addi on 20–22 Oct.
REPORTED - An ENDF drone strike in Finarwa killed four civilians on 21 Oct.
REPORTED - No new reporting after 23 Oct in this collection: the score holds.
NOT COVERED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct: 35% (F-20261016-01) · Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct: 5% (F-20261009-02)
Sources: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct
🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#
DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 13 | Regular fighting on the Kaziba, Minembwe and Masisi fronts, with drones in use. |
| Momentum (M) | 15 | Escalating: Joseph Kabila's FRN (launched 12 Oct) vows to march on Uvira and Kalemie. |
| Spread (S) | 15 | Rwanda-backed, per the UN; Burundi and Great Lakes states exposed. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 17 | More than 12,000 households displaced from Kaziba; Ebola emergency in the same region. |
| Global stakes (K) | 10 | Critical minerals; a US- and Qatar-brokered peace framework at risk. |
| Escalation Level | 70 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | No reliable daily count | — | NOT COVERED |
| Recent period | More than 12,000 households displaced by the Kaziba fighting from 11 Oct (no reliable death toll) | actualite.cd, via Critical Threats (21 Oct) | REPORTED |
| Longest verified run | No single reliable count for the current war | — | NOT COVERED |
Ground update
- Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force".
CONFIRMED - The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe.
REPORTED - Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths.
CONFIRMED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)
Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC
🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#
Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 11 | Regular deadly strikes: at least 5 killed on 26 Oct and at least 7 on 25 Oct. |
| Momentum (M) | 13 | Escalating: the IDF moved the Yellow Line westward; a double strike hit the Islamic University. |
| Spread (S) | 10 | Contained to Gaza, with links to the Lebanon and Iran fronts. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 20 | Catastrophic: food shortages, aid cuts, most of the population displaced. |
| Global stakes (K) | 12 | Regional diplomacy and the US-led peace plan. |
| Escalation Level | 66 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 29 Oct: 4 killed, 15+ wounded in a strike on the Ministry of Economy building in al-Mawasi | Democracy Now, citing Gaza reports | REPORTED |
| Latest day (other side) | 11 killed, 50 wounded in the previous 24 hours | Gaza Civil Defence (Mahmoud Basal) | REPORTED |
| Recent period | 1,559 killed, 5,608 injured since the 11 Oct 2025 ceasefire | Gaza medical sources, via Al Jazeera | REPORTED |
| Longest verified run | 74,555 killed, 175,727 injured since 7 Oct 2023 | Gaza health ministry, via Al Jazeera | REPORTED |
Ground update
- An Israeli strike hit the Ministry of Economy building in al-Mawasi, west of Rafah: 4 killed, at least 15 wounded.
REPORTED - 28 Oct: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes killed 5.
REPORTED - 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital).
CONFIRMED - Quadcopter drones set fire to a displaced camp at Shujayea junction; more than 200 families forced out (Ministry of Public Works).
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.
Sources: Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct
🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#
Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 17 | Heavy: at least 48 civilians killed in Menaka (18 Oct); more than 100 soldiers killed at Dioura (10 Sep). |
| Momentum (M) | 13 | Escalating: the Menaka killings and an IS–JNIM war inside the insurgency. |
| Spread (S) | 10 | Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; Russian Africa Corps engaged. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 16 | Massacres with house burnings; JNIM's blockade of Bamako since April has caused a fuel crisis. |
| Global stakes (K) | 8 | Regional: gold, migration routes, Russian presence. |
| Escalation Level | 64 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | At least 48 killed (provisional tolls 48 to 70+) · five localities in Menaka region · around 18 Oct | Security sources and local officials, via Reuters | REPORTED |
| Latest day (other side) | Claim: 400 JNIM fighters killed by ISSP in Burkina Faso | Islamic State Sahel Province | UNVERIFIED |
| Recent period | More than 100 soldiers killed in the Dioura attack · 10 Sep | Wire reports | REPORTED |
| Longest verified run | More than 2,000 killed in ISSP–JNIM fighting since 2019 | ACLED, via Reuters | REPORTED |
Ground update
- IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it.
REPORTED - ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record.
UNVERIFIED - JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues.
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.
Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor
🔴 WEST BANK — EL 62 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#
Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · The UN rights chief warns of "ethnic cleansing".
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 10 | Regular killing: 112 Palestinians and 6 Israelis killed in the West Bank this year (AP). |
| Momentum (M) | 18 | Step-change: Hebron sealed, 400+ locations raided, crossings shut for tomorrow's election, displacement declared permanent. |
| Spread (S) | 8 | Local, with settler attacks in Sinjil and Jalud. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 16 | More than 2,200 displaced in Hebron (municipality); the defence minister says they will not return. |
| Global stakes (K) | 10 | Israeli election tomorrow; regional diplomacy. |
| Escalation Level | 62 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 23 Oct: 2 Israeli soldiers killed, 3 lightly wounded; both Palestinian gunmen killed · near Hebron | Israeli military, via AP | CONFIRMED |
| Recent period | 3,361 people from 537 families forced from their homes in Hebron governorate | Governor Khaled Dudin, via Al Jazeera | STATEMENT |
| Longest verified run | At least 1,125 Palestinians killed since October 2023; at least 49 Israelis killed in Palestinian attacks | AFP tally of Palestinian health ministry figures; Israeli figures | REPORTED |
Ground update
- UN rights chief Volker Türk: "Threats to empty and erase entire neighbourhoods also raise serious concerns of ethnic cleansing." OCHA has recorded 2,000+ settler attacks causing casualties or damage in 2026, the most on record.
STATEMENT - Hebron's governor: 537 families (3,361 people) forced from their homes, including 232 infants; municipal figures put about 5,000 people from 780 families affected. 262,000 students moved to remote learning.
STATEMENT - The Palestinian Prisoners Society reports 110 detentions in Hebron governorate in six days. Two children were shot in Qalandiya camp (Red Crescent).
REPORTED - Settlers attacked US journalist Jasper Nathaniel and two activists in Masafer Yatta; Nathaniel was then arrested.
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)
Sources: UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct
🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#
Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 16 | Heavy: 175 junta air attacks in September (MDSI). |
| Momentum (M) | 13 | Escalating: the Arakan Army is besieging Sittwe; a junta landing on Ngapyi failed. |
| Spread (S) | 8 | Mostly internal; refugee flows to Bangladesh and Thailand. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 18 | 145 civilians killed by air attacks in September alone (MDSI); mass displacement. |
| Global stakes (K) | 6 | Regional: China's border trade and pipelines. |
| Escalation Level | 61 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 15 killed in an airstrike on Yesagyo · 16 Oct | Khit Thit Media | REPORTED |
| Recent period | 145 civilians killed in 175 air attacks · September | Myanmar Data & Security Institute (MDSI) | REPORTED |
| Longest verified run | No single reliable count | — | NOT COVERED |
Ground update
- A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct).
REPORTED - The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct).
REPORTED - The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital.
REPORTED - The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered.
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.
Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo
🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#
Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 12 | Regular: 225 militant attacks in September (PICSS). |
| Momentum (M) | 12 | Escalating: 20 police abducted in Mastung (17 Oct), an army major killed in Gwadar (19 Oct). |
| Spread (S) | 12 | Afghan border war since February; Iran border trade suspended. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 10 | An emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, approved on 14 Oct. |
| Global stakes (K) | 12 | Nuclear-armed state; mediator in the US–Iran crisis. |
| Escalation Level | 58 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▲ |
Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | 2 soldiers and 6 militants killed · D.I. Khan operation · 24 Oct | ISPR (army), via Xinhua | STATEMENT |
| Recent period | 225 militant attacks · September (attacks, not deaths) | PICSS | REPORTED |
| Longest verified run | No single reliable count | — | NOT COVERED |
Ground update
- The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation.
UNVERIFIED - Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR).
STATEMENT - Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct.
CONFIRMED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.
Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct
🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#
Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Violence (V) | 8 | Sporadic: Israeli air and artillery strikes on Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts on 25 Oct, no casualties reported. |
| Momentum (M) | 9 | Slightly calmer (9): no Hezbollah fire reported this week. |
| Spread (S) | 10 | Israeli forces inside southern Lebanon. |
| Civilian toll (C) | 12 | More than 1 million were displaced in the 2026 war; many cannot return south. |
| Global stakes (K) | 12 | Linked to the Iran front. |
| Escalation Level | 51 | Move: = · HOLD, no new data · Trend ▼ |
Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.
Death Watch
| Field | Figure | Whose count | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest day | No reliable daily count | — | NOT COVERED |
| Recent period | No reliable October count | — | NOT COVERED |
| Longest verified run | 4,389 killed, 12,424 injured since 2 March · as of 12 Oct | Lebanese health ministry, via Shafaq News | REPORTED |
Ground update
- Lebanon's foreign minister Youssef Raggi warned (27 Oct) that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into a third war with Israel at Tehran's direction. Naim Qassem warns of "no life" for Lebanon if the state moves to disarm the group.
STATEMENT - The 26 June US–Lebanon–Israel framework (phased withdrawal tied to disarmament) is stalled; Israel still holds a security zone in the south.
REPORTED - 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA).
REPORTED
Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.
Sources: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct
5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#
How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.
| Stage | Wars |
|---|---|
| 5 · Ceasefire holding | — |
| 4 · Ceasefire agreed | Gaza (EL 66), Lebanon (EL 51) |
| 3 · Talks under way | — |
| 2 · Talks planned | Ukraine (EL 92), DR Congo (EL 70) |
| 1 · Messages only | Yemen (EL 91), Sudan (EL 87), Iran (EL 79), Myanmar (EL 61) |
| 0 · No channel | Ethiopia (EL 72), Sahel (EL 64), West Bank (EL 62), Pakistan (EL 58) |
Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.
6. DEATH WATCH#
Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.
| War | Latest day | Recent period | Longest verified run |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 29 Oct: 27 killed, 127 injured across Ukraine, incl. at least 15 killed, 14 injured at Dnipro station; Kharkiv 4 killed; Kremenchuk 3 killed — Ukrainian authorities, via Kyiv Independent | 328 civilians killed, 2,105 wounded · 1–15 Oct — UN HRMMU | 2,570 civilians killed, 15,211 wounded · Jan–Sep 2026 — UN HRMMU (verified minimum) |
| Yemen | "Dozens" killed and wounded in Lahj ground fighting · 30 Oct (no breakdown). Riyadh: 1 wounded by shrapnel — Al-Ain (UAE media), via Jerusalem Post; Saudi Civil Defence | At least 58 killed in the Houthi strike on a Shabwa training camp, 19 Oct (reports up to 75); at least 12 killed at Riyadh's airport earlier in October (Al Jazeera now says 13) — Local and Saudi authorities | 251 civilian casualties, including 57 killed, since the re-escalation — OHCHR |
| Sudan | Nyala market strike, 26 Oct: 100+ killed (Emergency Lawyers) · 36 bodies, 150 wounded (MSF) · 21+ (Sudan Doctors Network) · ~14 civilians (witness) · an army-allied force claims 150+ "militia recruits" killed — AP (unverified by AP) | At least 306 killed by drones · 1–21 Oct · incl. Dibab ≥139 (18 Oct) and Abyei >80 (19 Oct; South Sudan says 153) — OHCHR (Türk, 23 Oct) | At least 59,000 killed since April 2023 — ACLED (recorded minimum) |
| Iran | No reliable daily count | 23 US service members dead since 28 Feb (11 by enemy fire, 12 non-hostile) — Pentagon, via CBS News | No reliable overall count in this edition's sources |
| Ethiopia | 4 civilians killed in an ENDF drone strike in Finarwa · 21 Oct — Critical Threats (23 Oct) | No reliable count for the 2026 fighting | No reliable count for the 2026 fighting |
| DR Congo | No reliable daily count | More than 12,000 households displaced by the Kaziba fighting from 11 Oct (no reliable death toll) — actualite.cd, via Critical Threats (21 Oct) | No single reliable count for the current war |
| Gaza | 29 Oct: 4 killed, 15+ wounded in a strike on the Ministry of Economy building in al-Mawasi — Democracy Now, citing Gaza reports | 1,559 killed, 5,608 injured since the 11 Oct 2025 ceasefire — Gaza medical sources, via Al Jazeera | 74,555 killed, 175,727 injured since 7 Oct 2023 — Gaza health ministry, via Al Jazeera |
| Sahel | At least 48 killed (provisional tolls 48 to 70+) · five localities in Menaka region · around 18 Oct — Security sources and local officials, via Reuters | More than 100 soldiers killed in the Dioura attack · 10 Sep — Wire reports | More than 2,000 killed in ISSP–JNIM fighting since 2019 — ACLED, via Reuters |
| West Bank | 23 Oct: 2 Israeli soldiers killed, 3 lightly wounded; both Palestinian gunmen killed · near Hebron — Israeli military, via AP | 3,361 people from 537 families forced from their homes in Hebron governorate — Governor Khaled Dudin, via Al Jazeera | At least 1,125 Palestinians killed since October 2023; at least 49 Israelis killed in Palestinian attacks — AFP tally of Palestinian health ministry figures; Israeli figures |
| Myanmar | 15 killed in an airstrike on Yesagyo · 16 Oct — Khit Thit Media | 145 civilians killed in 175 air attacks · September — Myanmar Data & Security Institute (MDSI) | No single reliable count |
| Pakistan | 2 soldiers and 6 militants killed · D.I. Khan operation · 24 Oct — ISPR (army), via Xinhua | 225 militant attacks · September (attacks, not deaths) — PICSS | No single reliable count |
| Lebanon | No reliable daily count | No reliable October count | 4,389 killed, 12,424 injured since 2 March · as of 12 Oct — Lebanese health ministry, via Shafaq News |
7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#
- Israel: Near-final count (CEC, 28 Oct): Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19; 61 needed. Likud 26, Yashar! 21, Joint List 12, B'Yachad 12. Eisenkot rules out serving under Netanyahu. Yair Golan: "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120." A minority government, a unity deal or another election are all possible; official results 4 Nov.
REPORTED— Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct - Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation".
STATEMENT— Middle East Eye, 27 Oct - Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet.
CONFIRMED— France 24, 26 Oct - Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified.
CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED— CNN, 23 Oct - Korean peninsula: No ballistic launch reported since 12 Oct.
NOT COVERED - Somalia: US air strikes have surged.
REPORTED— Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
8. FORECAST LEDGER#
24 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 25 open
No forecasts were due today.
| ID | War | Question | Resolves | Price | Ladder | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-20261008-01 | IRN | US strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov | 3 Nov | 10% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261025-01 | IRN | US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov | 30 Nov | 55% | roughly even chance | = |
| F-20261017-01 | IRN | Independent confirmation of a naval-mine strike near Hormuz, 17–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 35% | unlikely | ▲20 (Louise 1 limpet mines; UKMTO: vessel on fire. Resolves tonight) |
| F-20261022-01 | IRN | US orders departure of staff from another Gulf mission (not Saudi Arabia), 22–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 35% | unlikely | ▼10 (last day) |
| F-20261024-02 | IRN | Brent settles above $125 on any day, 26 Oct – 6 Nov | 6 Nov | 25% | unlikely | ▲5 (Brent $117.62) |
| F-20261031-01 | IRN | Iran publicly gives a formal response (accept, reject or counter) to the Qatari draft deal by 7 Nov | 7 Nov | 55% | roughly even chance | NEW |
| F-20261008-02 | UKR | US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral meeting by 31 Oct | 31 Oct | 1% | almost no chance | = |
| F-20261023-02 | UKR | Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in a US-brokered trilateral by 15 Nov | 15 Nov | 65% | likely | = |
| F-20261026-01 | UKR | Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec | 31 Dec | 8% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261029-01 | UKR | The Oleshky local ceasefire runs to 1 Nov with no breach reported by either side | 1 Nov | 80% | very likely | ▲5 (still no violations, ends 1 Nov) |
| F-20261010-01 | YEM | Declared US strike on Houthi targets by 31 Oct | 31 Oct | 5% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261028-01 | YEM | Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm damage to an oil facility from a Houthi attack, 28 Oct – 15 Nov | 15 Nov | 45% | roughly even chance | = |
| F-20261014-01 | YEM | Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude output or exports, 14–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 15% | very unlikely | ▼10 (Abqaiq claim unconfirmed; no output impact reported) |
| F-20261015-01 | YEM | Houthi attack kills at least 1 in Aden governorate, 16–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 15% | very unlikely | ▼20 (no death in Aden governorate reported; Lahj is outside it) |
| F-20261018-01 | YEM | Egyptian military assets publicly confirmed in Saudi Arabia, 18–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 25% | unlikely | = |
| F-20261020-01 | YEM | Another non-GCC state (not the UK or Egypt) announces a deployment to defend Saudi Arabia, 20–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 15% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261026-02 | SDN | SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec | 31 Dec | 5% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261009-02 | ETH | Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct | 31 Oct | 5% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261016-01 | ETH | TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct | 31 Oct | 35% | unlikely | ▼10 (last day) |
| F-20261013-02 | DRC | FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov | 30 Nov | 15% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261023-01 | WBK | Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov | 15 Nov | 75% | likely | = |
| F-20261012-01 | WATCH | Another North Korean ballistic launch, 13–31 Oct | 31 Oct | 20% | very unlikely | = |
| F-20261021-01 | WATCH | Nigeria confirms a second Ebola case, 21 Oct – 4 Nov | 4 Nov | 25% | unlikely | = |
| F-20261024-01 | WATCH | Jordan announces the arrest or killing of a Karak suspect by 7 Nov | 7 Nov | 80% | very likely | = |
| F-20261025-02 | WATCH | Brazil's losing candidate or party files a formal challenge to the result (TSE or Supreme Court) by 8 Nov | 8 Nov | 60% | likely | = |
F-20261031-01. For: a CBS official expects Iran's response around 31 Oct; Qatar is an active mediator and Pezeshkian discussed "the negotiations" in Moscow. Against: a senior Iranian official denies receiving a new proposal and calls Qatar's ideas "unacceptable"; Tehran may wait for the US midterms. Resolution: an Iranian official publicly states Tehran's response to a Qatari-mediated draft, reported by two independent outlets, by 7 Nov 2026.
9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct | 11 forecasts close tonight; scored in RIX-077 |
| 1 Nov | Oleshky local ceasefire ends (F-20261029-01) |
| 3 Nov | US midterms · Pentagon strike options for after |
| 4 Nov | Israel's official results |
| 7 Nov | F-20261031-01 (Iran's answer to Qatar) resolves |
| 1–15 Nov | US–Russia–Ukraine talks expected |
| 15 Nov | F-20261028-01 and F-20261023-02 resolve |
10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#
- Ukraine: RIX-075 reported at least 19 killed across Ukraine on 29 Oct; the full-day toll is 27 killed and 127 injured, with the Dnipro station toll at 15 (Kyiv Independent, citing officials).
- Iran: US deaths since 28 Feb are now 23 (Pentagon), up from 21; the two added deaths were non-hostile.
Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B
11. SOURCES#
Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill 27, injure 127 over past day, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: at least 14 killed in Russian attack on Dnipro train station, 29 Oct · CNN: Russia strikes Dnipro train station, killing 14, 29 Oct · Euronews: drone attack on railway station, 29 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Oleshky ceasefire enters 30th hour; 2 killed, 17 injured, 28 Oct · Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct
Yemen war: Al Jazeera: Houthi forces claim six attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities, 30 Oct · Jerusalem Post: Houthis in 'fierce battles' near Aden and Taiz, 30 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone targeting Mecca, 30 Oct · Siasat: Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drone over Makkah, 30 Oct · Naharnet / AFP: Houthis say Saudi strike kills 12, 29 Oct
Sudan civil war: Amnesty: El Fasher civilians one year after the RSF capture, Oct 2026 · AP via ClickOnDetroit: strike on Darfur market killed civilians selling food to fighters, 28 Oct · Darfur24: UN warns of new atrocities risk in Sudan, 28 Oct · AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct
US/Israel–Iran: Al Jazeera live: tankers hit in Hormuz; 'earth-shattering blow', 31 Oct · CBS News live: tankers strike mines; Hegseth fires top general; Qatar draft, 28–30 Oct · Fox News live: strike options, Louise 1, Brent $117.62, 30 Oct · WBUR Here & Now: Is the US preparing to attack Iran?, 29 Oct · Fox News live: Trump says 'anything's possible' on post-midterm strikes, 28 Oct · Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, 28–29 Oct
Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct
Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC
Israel–Gaza: Democracy Now: Israel bombs Gaza ministry, 29 Oct · Arab News / AP: Gaza health officials say Israeli strikes kill 5, 28 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct
Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor
West Bank: UN News: Hebron crackdown displaces thousands, Türk warns of ethnic cleansing, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Palestinians injured, arrested in Israeli raids across West Bank, 29 Oct · Al Jazeera: West Bank raids as Hebron lockdown enters sixth day, 28 Oct · AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct
Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo
Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct
Israel–Lebanon: Latin Times: Lebanon warns Hezbollah could pull the country into another war, 28 Oct · Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct
Watchlist: Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu bloc wins 53 seats, opposition holds 48, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct
Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.
RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-076 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (71.08) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 25 forecasts open