RAGE INDEX — 27 October 2026: 71 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-072 · RAGE Intel · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Daily · Archive edition (back-filled)#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 30 Oct 2026, from material published by the cutoff · Data cutoff 27 Oct 23:59 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 22#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 71 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 70.67 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 848, ÷ 12) · Move since RIX-2026-071: +1.09 (was 69.58)

Verdict. The world number rose one point to 71. Eleven of twelve wars are getting worse. Yemen moved most, with Houthi missiles claimed on Ras Tanura and Riyadh. In Sudan, a rights group says an army drone strike on a Nyala market killed more than 100. Israel voted: exit polls show no majority for either bloc.

The day. Israelis voted in the highest turnout in decades; exit polls give neither bloc the 61 seats needed. Russia hit Kyiv with two waves of ballistic missiles. The Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery. US officials say a strike on Iran could be launched within 96 hours of an order.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

What moved#

HOLD · no new data: Ethiopia, DR Congo, Gaza, West Bank, Myanmar, Pakistan, Lebanon.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  91  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  ██████████████████░░  89  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  █████████████████░░░  87  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ████████████████░░░░  78  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ██████████████░░░░░░  72  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
SAH  █████████████░░░░░░░  64  ▲  PT ○○○○○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  71     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 91 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Kyiv under ballistic fire, with talks still on the calendar.

What moved: M 14→15: two waves of ballistic missiles on Kyiv (Southern Bridge, a university, medical centres); Kyiv warns of a winter campaign on energy

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Overnight 26–27 Oct: Russia fired two waves of S-400 and Iskander ballistic missiles and 280 drones (69 jet-powered). The air force says it stopped 2 missiles and 255 drones; 25 sites in Kyiv were hit. STATEMENT
• Kyiv's Southern Bridge was hit, disrupting the metro; a university campus and medical centres were also struck. CONFIRMED
• A local ceasefire to let humanitarian aid into occupied Oleshky has begun, says Ukraine's intelligence chief Budanov. STATEMENT
• The Kremlin says Russia is ready to resume trilateral talks with the US and Ukraine in November. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in a US-brokered trilateral by 15 Nov: 65% (F-20261023-02) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct · Euromaidan Press: Izium and Zaporizhzhia strikes, 26 Oct · Ukranews: Russia ready to resume trilateral talks in November (Ushakov), 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 89 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · The war is now aimed at Saudi oil.

What moved: V 18→19: Saudi-backed forces claim 1,276 operations in 24 hours on the Red Sea coast; coalition strikes on missile tunnels and launchers · M 15→16: Houthis claim a ballistic strike on Ras Tanura; three ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province on 27 Oct · K 16→17: global energy: Ras Tanura is Saudi Arabia's largest refinery and a major export terminal

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 27 Oct: the Houthis claim missile hits on Ras Tanura ("massive fires"), the defence ministry in Riyadh, and transport aircraft at Najran and King Khalid Air Base. Saudi Arabia says it shot down 2 ballistic missiles at Riyadh and 3 at the Eastern Province and confirms none of the claimed hits. UNVERIFIED
• Debris from intercepted missiles damaged a building, a construction site and a car in Riyadh; a fire near Ras Tanura was contained (Bloomberg, Vanguard). No casualties reported. CORROBORATED
• Saudi-backed forces claim about 382 Houthi fighters "neutralised" in 24 hours. REPORTED
• The US Embassy in Riyadh remains on ordered departure and warns of attacks on airports. Egypt's parliament authorised military support for Saudi Arabia on 26 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude output or exports, 14–31 Oct: 30% (F-20261014-01) · Houthi attack kills at least 1 in Aden governorate, 16–31 Oct: 35% (F-20261015-01)

Sources: Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi-led coalition downs Houthi missiles and drones, 27 Oct · Anadolu: Houthis claim attack on Ras Tanura, 27 Oct · Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 87 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · Its deadliest day this month, and the capital in the dark.

What moved: M 17→18: RSF drones hit six power stations on 26 Oct (millions without power) and Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat station on 27 Oct; 21 killed at a Nyala market · M 18→19: a rights group says an army drone strike on a Nyala market (26 Oct) killed more than 100; a strike on Khartoum's Al-Markhiyat substation cut power to large parts of the capital for 12+ hours

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 26 Oct: a drone strike on a market in Nyala, the RSF-held capital of South Darfur. Emergency Lawyers says more than 100 were killed and 113 injured, many women and children, and blames the army. Doctors Without Borders received 36 bodies and 150 injured. The army has not commented. DISPUTED
• 27 Oct: an RSF drone hit the Al-Markhiyat substation in Omdurman, leaving large parts of Khartoum without power for more than 12 hours; an official estimates 60% of the capital's supply was affected. CORROBORATED
• 26 Oct: RSF drones hit six power stations in Al Jazirah, White Nile, Sennar and Gedaref, leaving millions without power. CORROBORATED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct · UN News: drone strikes killed at least 306 in three weeks, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera: drone attack in Sudan–South Sudan border region, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: how Sudan's shift to drone warfare fuels a civilian crisis, 22 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 78 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · Strike-ready within 96 hours.

What moved: M 17→18: US officials say forces could launch major strikes within 96 hours of an order, with energy, military and nuclear sites on the list; the IRGC promises a "harsher and more devastating" response

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Messages only. Putin hosted Pezeshkian and Qatar's emir in Moscow (27 Oct) to discuss "the latest on the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz". Iran's Bagheri Kani sets seven conditions before new talks. No meeting with the US scheduled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Two US officials say forces in the region can launch new, potentially major operations "within 96 hours of receiving" an order; targets include energy, military and nuclear sites. Most expect any order after the midterms. REPORTED
• In Moscow, Pezeshkian told Putin: "I believe we are capable of resolving our problems in the region without relying on the United States." Iran's armed forces chief: "The strategic waterway is completely closed." STATEMENT
• Abdollah Haji Sadeghi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the IRGC: further US attacks will bring a "harsher and more devastating" response (Tasnim). STATEMENT
• Trump at a Mississippi rally said he expects oil prices to rise even higher. Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov: 15% (F-20261008-01) · US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 50% (F-20261025-01)

Sources: Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · CNN: US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses, 26 Oct (headline) · UAE Vartha: Tehran signals permanent shift in Hormuz rules, 26 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 72 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Tigray is at war again.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• TDF and Amhara Fano forces reportedly took Abergele by 23 Oct; ENDF advanced from Abiy Addi towards Yechila and is pushing from Shire towards Sheraro. REPORTED
• TDF re-entered Rama on 22 Oct (ACLED); ENDF took Semema, Zana and Abiy Addi on 20–22 Oct. REPORTED
• An ENDF drone strike in Finarwa killed four civilians on 21 Oct. REPORTED
• No new reporting after 23 Oct in this collection: the score holds. NOT COVERED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct: 60% (F-20261016-01) · Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct: 8% (F-20261009-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; the army reinforced Luvungi and Lubarika after retaking Muhungu (21 Oct). Government drone strikes reported around Minembwe. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED
• The Palestinian Information Center gives the 26 Oct toll as 7, including the 7-year-old girl; Al Jazeera's hospital-based count is at least 5. DISPUTED
• Quadcopter drones set fire to a displaced camp at Shujayea junction; more than 200 families forced out (Ministry of Public Works). REPORTED
• Israeli outlets say the IDF and Shin Bet killed a Hamas intelligence commander and an engineering commander in Gaza City. REPORTED
• The IDF has moved the Yellow Line further west; the peace plan has stalled before its second phase. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

🔴 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 64 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · Massacres in the east, a blockade in the capital.

What moved: V 15→17: late collection: IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in the Menaka region on 18 Oct (Reuters) · M 10→13: late collection: Menaka massacre; ISSP claims 400 JNIM fighters killed in Burkina Faso (unconfirmed) · C 15→16: village massacres with house burnings in Menaka; Bamako fuel blockade continues

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• IS-linked militants killed at least 48 civilians in at least five localities in Menaka, reportedly in retaliation for abuses by the MSA militia and Russia's Africa Corps. ISSP has not claimed it. REPORTED
• ISSP claims it killed 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso, which would be the deadliest IS–JNIM battle on record. UNVERIFIED
• JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · The fastest-escalating war this week.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Hebron operation began after two Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers, Staff Sgt. Ron Yonatan Roytman (23) and Sgt. Yuval Shai Svilem (20), near Yehuda Junction on 23 Oct; troops killed both gunmen. Netanyahu: "We will evacuate the residents, we will go house-by-house." CONFIRMED
• Election day, 27 Oct: all West Bank crossings closed. Fatah's Jibril Rajoub warns army and settler violence is "a prelude to a coming reaction and explosion". STATEMENT
• AFP tally: at least 1,125 Palestinians killed in the West Bank since October 2023; settlers killed 23 (UN); Palestinian attacks killed at least 49 Israelis. REPORTED
• Hebron: the IDF says it searched 400+ locations and made 40 arrests. Displaced: 2,200+ (municipality), about 2,000 (Katz), 2,670 (PA). DISPUTED
• Defence minister Israel Katz: displaced residents "will not be allowed to return to their neighbourhood". STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• A junta Y-12 bombing in downtown Sittwe reportedly killed at least 6 and wounded 37 (BNI headline, 23 Oct). REPORTED
• The AA says it controls Wabo village as the junta reinforces Sittwe (Mizzima, 20 Oct). REPORTED
• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The BLA claims it killed more than 27 Pakistani security personnel in 15 attacks across Balochistan, 20–26 Oct. There is no official confirmation. UNVERIFIED
• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED
• US-mediated Lebanon–Israel military-technical talks in Tampa (20–21 Oct) ended without announced results. REPORTED
• Netanyahu says Israel will "continue to strike Hezbollah"; Naim Qassem says resistance continues while Israel stays. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Israel: Election day. Turnout 74.3% by 20:00, the highest at that hour since 1988 (Central Elections Committee). Exit polls (Channels 12 and 13): change bloc 52–53, Netanyahu's bloc 50, Arab parties 17–18; 61 needed. Likud 24–25, Yashar! 22–23. Final results due Friday; official results 4 Nov. REPORTED — Al Jazeera: exit polls indicate no clear winner, 27 Oct
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Putin hosted Pezeshkian and Qatar's emir in Moscow to discuss "the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz". STATEMENT — Gulf News, 27–28 Oct
• Gulf diplomacy: Oman's foreign minister calls for an Iran–Gulf non-aggression pact; Saudi Arabia says a Tehran visit aims to "prevent the return of military escalation". STATEMENT — Middle East Eye, 27 Oct
• Brazil: Lula won the run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. No formal filing found yet. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Korean peninsula: No ballistic launch reported since 12 Oct. NOT COVERED
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

24 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 22 open

No forecasts were due today.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• ARCHIVE EDITION. RIX-2026-072 was not published on the day. It was compiled on 30 Oct from material published by 27 Oct 23:59 EET, so the record has no gap. Nothing reported after the cutoff is used. RIX-2026-073 (28 Oct), already published, measured its moves from RIX-2026-071 over two days and stands as published; its scores match this edition's because it was compiled the next morning from the same events.
• Sahel rescored on late collection: the Menaka massacre (around 18 Oct, Reuters, 20 Oct) was missed in RIX-071. Violence 15→17, Momentum 10→13, Civilian toll 15→16: EL 58→64, Contested→Active fighting. The +6 is a correction, so it is exempt from the daily ±5 cap and excluded from "escalating fastest".
• DR Congo: RIX-071 printed "at least 4 killed" in the Kaziba fighting. The desk cannot trace that figure to a source and withdraws it.
• Sudan: the Nyala market toll is unreconciled: Emergency Lawyers (27 Oct) says 100+, MSF received 36 bodies, an AFP medical source says 21.
• Israel: exit polls are not results. Partial counts on 28 Oct moved towards Netanyahu's bloc (see RIX-073).

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · SAH B · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv Independent: Russian attacks kill four, injure 55 as Kyiv comes under ballistic assault, 27 Oct · Euromaidan Press: Izium and Zaporizhzhia strikes, 26 Oct · Ukranews: Russia ready to resume trilateral talks in November (Ushakov), 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct

Yemen war: Dawn / AFP: Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refinery, ministry, 28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Houthis hit Saudi refinery as Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · Al Jazeera: Saudi-led coalition downs Houthi missiles and drones, 27 Oct · Anadolu: Houthis claim attack on Ras Tanura, 27 Oct · Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct

Sudan civil war: AP via WNYT: more than 100 killed in army drone attack on market, says rights group, 27 Oct · Dawn / AFP: Sudan drone strikes kill 21, cause mass outages, 27 Oct · Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct · UN News: drone strikes killed at least 306 in three weeks, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera: drone attack in Sudan–South Sudan border region, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: how Sudan's shift to drone warfare fuels a civilian crisis, 22 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: Egyptian Gazette: US forces ready to strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, 27 Oct · Gulf News: Putin hosts Qatar and Iran leaders; Houthi intercepts, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye: Iran warns of 'devastating' response, 27 Oct · CNN: US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses, 26 Oct (headline) · UAE Vartha: Tehran signals permanent shift in Hormuz rules, 26 Oct

Ethiopia wars: Critical Threats: Ethiopia War Security Review, 23 Oct · Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Critical Threats: Congo War Security Review, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct · Palestinian Information Center: girl among seven killed, 26 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Reuters via Internazionale: IS-linked militants kill at least 48 civilians in eastern Mali, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

West Bank: AP via KSAT: two soldiers killed near Hebron; West Bank closure ordered, 23 Oct · ARY / AFP: West Bank on verge of 'explosion', 20 Oct · AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

Myanmar civil war: BNI: fighting escalates in Sittwe, 14 Oct (with 23 Oct headline) · Mizzima: AA says it controls Wabo village, 20 Oct · The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: The Hawk / IANS: BLA claims 27+ personnel killed, 20–26 Oct · Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Israel–Lebanon: Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: Al Jazeera: exit polls indicate no clear winner, 27 Oct · Gulf News, 27–28 Oct · Middle East Eye, 27 Oct · France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-072 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 71 (70.67) · 3 full-scale · 11/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 22 forecasts open