RAGE INDEX — 26 October 2026: 70 ACTIVE FIGHTING

RIX-2026-071 · RAGE Intel · Monday, 26 October 2026 · Daily · Launch edition (v3 baseline) · Midday update#

Methodology v3.0 · Compiled 26 Oct 2026, 13:45 Beirut (EET, UTC+2) · Data cutoff 26 Oct 13:30 EET · 12 wars tracked · Forecasts open: 22#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

🆕 New format, same name. From today the RAGE INDEX scores each war on how bad it is, which way it is moving, and how close it is to stopping. The world number is the average of those scores. See How to read this below and Methodology v3.0. This is a series break: today's number cannot be compared with the old 86–88 scale.

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1. THE WORLD NUMBER#

RIX 70 / 100 · 🔴 ACTIVE FIGHTING#

Precise: 69.58 (sum of 12 Escalation Levels = 835, ÷ 12) · Daily move: — (baseline)

Verdict. Three wars are at full scale, ten of twelve are getting worse, and only two have a ceasefire on paper. Ukraine is the highest-scoring war we track; the West Bank is escalating fastest; Lebanon is the closest to quiet. Midday: Egypt's parliament has authorised military support for Saudi Arabia, drawing Egypt closer to the Yemen war.

The day. Egypt's parliament approved military support for Saudi Arabia as the Houthis claimed new missile salvos at Riyadh's airport. Iran's foreign minister said Hormuz "will not be the same as" before. Trump says there will be no strike "today", but the option is open. Israel votes tomorrow.

2. TODAY'S THREE#

Baseline day: "escalating fastest" is the highest Momentum score. From tomorrow it is the biggest daily rise in Escalation Level.

How to read this (30 seconds)#

• Escalation Level (EL), 0–100: five scores of 0–20 added up. Violence · Momentum · Spread · Civilian toll · K Global stakes.
• Momentum sits at 10 when the week was stable. Above 10 means the war is getting worse (▲); below 10 means it is calming (▼).
• Phase: 🟥 Full-scale war 80–100 · 🔴 Active fighting 60–79 · 🟠 Contested 40–59 · 🟡 Low intensity 20–39 · 🟢 Calm 0–19.
• Peace Track, 0–5: 0 No channel · 1 Messages only · 2 Talks planned · 3 Talks under way · 4 Ceasefire agreed · 5 Ceasefire holding.
• Deaths are always attributed and dated. We never add up different counts and never estimate one.

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3. THE WAR BOARD#

UKR  ██████████████████░░  90  ▲  PT ●●○○○
YEM  █████████████████░░░  86  ▲  PT ●○○○○
SDN  █████████████████░░░  85  ▲  PT ●○○○○
IRN  ███████████████░░░░░  77  ▲  PT ●○○○○
ETH  ██████████████░░░░░░  72  ▲  PT ○○○○○
DRC  ██████████████░░░░░░  70  ▲  PT ●●○○○
GAZ  █████████████░░░░░░░  66  ▲  PT ●●●●○
WBK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ○○○○○
MMR  ████████████░░░░░░░░  61  ▲  PT ●○○○○
PAK  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ▲  PT ○○○○○
SAH  ████████████░░░░░░░░  58  ■  PT ○○○○○
LBN  ██████████░░░░░░░░░░  51  ▼  PT ●●●●○
RIX  ██████████████░░░░░░  70     world average

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4. WAR CARDS#

🟥 RUSSIA–UKRAINE — EL 90 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage A#

Russia · Ukraine · Full-scale war, with talks on the calendar.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. Trilateral (US–Russia–Ukraine) talks planned in Abu Dhabi, first half of November (Kremlin). 270-for-270 POW swap done.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Overnight 25–26 Oct: Russia launched 140 drones and 4 missiles; Ukraine's air force says it downed or suppressed 112 drones and 3 missiles, with hits at 15 locations. STATEMENT
• Guided bombs hit Izium, Yasnohirka near Kramatorsk and Sloviansk; Zaporizhzhia had 4 wounded overnight. CONFIRMED
• Kyiv warns that Russia is planning winter attacks on energy infrastructure; jet-powered Shaheds are a growing problem for air defence. STATEMENT
• The Kremlin confirms trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in a US-brokered trilateral by 15 Nov: 65% (F-20261023-02) · Russia–Ukraine general ceasefire announced by both sides by 31 Dec: 8% (F-20261026-01)

Sources: Euromaidan Press: Russian overnight attacks wound six, later strikes kill three, 26 Oct · Anadolu (anews): Russia, Ukraine report casualties, 25 Oct · US News / Reuters: three killed in Belgorod, 25 Oct · AnewZ / Reuters: five killed in Russia, logistics hub hit, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct · ABC News: Russia fires 3 waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, 22 Oct

🟥 YEMEN WAR — EL 86 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

Houthis · Yemeni government · Saudi-led coalition · Full-scale, and now aimed at Riyadh.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks. Messages via Oman and regional mediators only. Saudi Arabia says a visit to Tehran aims to ease tensions.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 26 Oct: Egypt's parliament approved President Sisi's request for military support to Saudi Arabia if Riyadh asks for it (Bloomberg, The National). CONFIRMED
• Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims missile salvos at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, a Saudi air base and a naval facility; the coalition says it intercepted projectiles over southern Saudi Arabia. REPORTED
• Saudi forces say they hit vessels carrying Houthi weapons. REPORTED
• Pope Leo XIV on Taiz: "The population is suffering from a lack of food, water and medical care." STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Egyptian military assets publicly confirmed in Saudi Arabia, 18–31 Oct: 30% (F-20261018-01) · Houthi attack kills at least 1 in Aden governorate, 16–31 Oct: 40% (F-20261015-01)

Sources: Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct · The National: Egypt's parliament approves military support for Saudi Arabia (live), 26 Oct · UAE Vartha: Houthi salvos on Riyadh airport; Araghchi on Hormuz, 26 Oct · Gulf News: Trump rules out a strike today; Houthi attack injuries, 25 Oct · Gulf News live: Houthi missile targets Riyadh, 23–25 Oct · Express Tribune: Shabwa toll rises to 73, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi attack on Shabwa camp, 19 Oct

🟥 SUDAN CIVIL WAR — EL 85 · Full-scale war · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage B#

SAF · RSF · The world's deadliest drone war.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. No talks between SAF and RSF. Quartet and UN contacts carry messages only.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 26 Oct: RSF drones hit power stations in Al Jazirah (El Geneid), Sennar (Singa), Gedaref (Al-Faw, Al-Hawata) and White Nile (Mashkour), causing widespread outages; guards injured at Singa. REPORTED
• UN rights chief Volker Türk: drones killed at least 306 civilians in the first three weeks of October. STATEMENT
• The Abyei toll and date remain disputed between the UN (>80, 19 Oct) and South Sudan (153, 20 Oct). DISPUTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: SAF and RSF both announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec: 5% (F-20261026-02)

Sources: Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct · UN News: drone strikes killed at least 306 in three weeks, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera: drone attack in Sudan–South Sudan border region, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: how Sudan's shift to drone warfare fuels a civilian crisis, 22 Oct

🔴 US/ISRAEL–IRAN — EL 77 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage A#

US · Israel · Iran / IRGC · A strike is being openly discussed.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. Iran says messages still reach Washington through intermediaries; a Qatari delegation was in Tehran. Tehran rejects US terms as "complete surrender". No meeting scheduled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Trump on 25 Oct: "No. There will not be a strike today." He says he is weighing a deal or to "finish the job". CNN (26 Oct) reports the US has plans for major strikes if Trump chooses. STATEMENT
• FM Abbas Araghchi: "The routes in the Strait of Hormuz will not be the same as they once were" (IRNA). Spokesman Baghaei: Iran rejects "complete surrender". STATEMENT
• Netanyahu: "The (military) is ready both to defend and to strike." CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper visited Hormuz and says more than 3,000 vessels transited with US support in six months. STATEMENT
• Iranian media say an IRGC drone strike hit the Komala headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan on 25 Oct. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: US strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov: 20% (F-20261008-01) · US strike on Iranian territory, 4–30 Nov: 45% (F-20261025-01)

Sources: India TV: Trump rules out a strike today, 26 Oct · Business Standard / AP: messages still being passed to US, says Iran, 26 Oct · CNN: US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses, 26 Oct (headline) · UAE Vartha: Tehran signals permanent shift in Hormuz rules, 26 Oct · India TV: Trump signals possible Sunday strikes on Iran, 25 Oct · ABC News: Iran live updates, 23–25 Oct · Daily Star / AFP: tanker attacked near Hormuz (UKMTO), 22 Oct · Rio Times: Brent settles at $116.72, 23 Oct

🔴 ETHIOPIA WARS — EL 72 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Federal forces · TPLF/TDF · Fano · Eritrea (alleged) · Tigray is at war again.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel. Eritrea has cut ties; Abiy warns of "extremely severe consequences".

Death Watch

Ground update

• TPLF commander Fisseha Kidanu: "Tigray still at war." TPLF forces retook Rama on 22 Oct. REPORTED
• Federal forces took Abiy Addi, Semema and Zana on 20–22 Oct; a federal caretaker council for Tigray was named on 16 Oct. REPORTED
• Hundreds of Ethiopians crossed into Kenya to flee fighting near Moyale. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: TPLF publicly rejects Tigray's interim administration by 31 Oct: 60% (F-20261016-01) · Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct: 10% (F-20261009-02)

Sources: Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

🔴 EASTERN CONGO WAR — EL 70 · Active fighting · Peace Track 2/5 · Coverage B#

DRC army and allies · FRN/M23 (Rwanda-backed, per the UN) · A former president now leads the rebellion.

Peace Track: ●●○○○ 2 · Talks planned. A Doha meeting is planned for late October but may not happen; a Tanzania meeting is set for December.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Kabila's Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN) has replaced the AFC–M23 alliance and calls for resistance "by all means, including force". CONFIRMED
• The FRN says it will march on Uvira and Kalemie; fighting continues around Minembwe and Masisi. REPORTED
• Ebola: more than 9,700 cases and 4,600 deaths, a WHO public health emergency. Not counted as war deaths. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov: 15% (F-20261013-02)

Sources: Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

🔴 ISRAEL–GAZA — EL 66 · Active fighting · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage A#

Israel · Hamas and armed groups · A ceasefire on paper. Killing every day.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire agreed in October 2025 and still formally in force, but breached daily. The peace plan's next phase has stalled.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 26 Oct: an air strike on a displaced persons' camp in al-Mawasi killed 4, including 7-year-old Jouri al-Soufi (Nasser Hospital). CONFIRMED
• Quadcopter drones set fire to a displaced camp at Shujayea junction; more than 200 families forced out (Ministry of Public Works). REPORTED
• Israeli outlets say the IDF and Shin Bet killed a Hamas intelligence commander and an engineering commander in Gaza City. REPORTED
• The IDF has moved the Yellow Line further west; the peace plan has stalled before its second phase. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct

🔴 WEST BANK — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage A#

Israel / settlers · Palestinian armed groups · The fastest-escalating war this week.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Hebron: the IDF says it searched 400+ locations and made 40 arrests. Displaced: 2,200+ (municipality), about 2,000 (Katz), 2,670 (PA). DISPUTED
• Defence minister Israel Katz: displaced residents "will not be allowed to return to their neighbourhood". STATEMENT
• All West Bank crossings close for Israel's election on 27 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: Named or multi-brigade West Bank operation officially announced, 23 Oct – 15 Nov: 75% (F-20261023-01)

Sources: AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

🔴 MYANMAR CIVIL WAR — EL 61 · Active fighting · Peace Track 1/5 · Coverage C#

Junta · AA, KIA, KNLA and other armed groups · PDFs · An air war on civilians before an election.

Peace Track: ●○○○○ 1 · Messages only. The junta invited armed groups to "peace talks"; the main groups rejected it. Elections due December–January.

Death Watch

Ground update

• The Arakan Army continues its siege of Sittwe, the Rakhine state capital. REPORTED
• The AA says a junta landing on Ngapyi failed and about 40 bodies were recovered. REPORTED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

🟠 PAKISTAN'S WARS — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage B#

Pakistan · TTP · Baloch armed groups · Afghan Taliban · Two insurgencies and an emergency.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel with the TTP or Baloch groups. The Afghan front has no announced talks.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Army operation in Dera Ismail Khan, 24 Oct: 2 soldiers and 6 TTP fighters killed (ISPR). STATEMENT
• Parliament approved an emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 14 Oct. CONFIRMED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

🟠 SAHEL INSURGENCY — EL 58 · Contested · Peace Track 0/5 · Coverage C#

Juntas and Africa Corps · JNIM · ISSP · FLA · A capital under blockade.

Peace Track: ○○○○○ 0 · No channel. No channel.

Death Watch

Ground update

• Mali's army retook Kidal on 6 Oct. JNIM's blockade of Bamako continues. REPORTED
• No new reporting for 19–25 Oct. Coverage C. NOT COVERED

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

🟠 ISRAEL–LEBANON — EL 51 · Contested · Peace Track 4/5 · Coverage B#

Israel · Hezbollah · Closest to a ceasefire, with an occupation.

Peace Track: ●●●●○ 4 · Ceasefire agreed. Ceasefire since June, with a 26 June framework (phased Israeli withdrawal, army deployment, disarmament). US-mediated military-technical talks in Tampa on 20–21 Oct ended without results. The IDF holds a security zone up to about 12 km deep.

Death Watch

Ground update

• 25 Oct: Israeli air strikes, shelling and demolitions across the Nabatiyeh, Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts; no casualties reported (NNA). REPORTED
• US-mediated Lebanon–Israel military-technical talks in Tampa (20–21 Oct) ended without announced results. REPORTED
• Netanyahu says Israel will "continue to strike Hezbollah"; Naim Qassem says resistance continues while Israel stays. STATEMENT

Ceasefire odds and forecasts: No forecast yet.

Sources: Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

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5. CEASEFIRE WATCH#

How far each war is from stopping. Facts, not hopes.

Reading the gap. Gaza and Lebanon both have ceasefires on paper (stage 4), but Gaza's EL of 66 says the killing has not stopped. Ukraine has the only dated talks (stage 2) among the full-scale wars. 4 wars have no channel at all.

6. DEATH WATCH#

Every figure has an owner and a date. They are not added together, because different counters count different things.

7. WATCHLIST (not scored)#

• Brazil: Lula won Sunday's run-off; Flávio Bolsonaro rejects the result and demands its annulment. CONFIRMED — France 24, 26 Oct
• Jordan: Church attack toll is 9 (confirmed). The Islamic State claim is unverified; three suspects reportedly identified. CONFIRMED · claim UNVERIFIED — CNN, 23 Oct
• Korean peninsula: Kim Jong Un in Dandong. No ballistic launch reported since 12 Oct. REPORTED
• Taiwan Strait: No new incident in this edition's collection. NOT COVERED
• Venezuela / Cuba: US pressure campaign continues; no new kinetic event in this collection. NOT COVERED
• Somalia: US air strikes have surged; families seek answers on civilian deaths. REPORTED — Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

8. FORECAST LEDGER#

24 resolved, 1 void · running Brier ≈ 0.21 (scored at issue price, rule 10.5; lower is better, 0.25 = coin flip) · 22 open

Resolved today#

Open#

F-20261026-01. For: Abu Dhabi talks planned, US pressure on both sides, POW swaps. Against: Putin says talks should address "long-term security", not a "short" truce; daily mass strikes; no agreed line of contact. Resolution: a general ceasefire announced by both governments by 31 Dec 2026.

F-20261026-02. For: Quartet pressure, rising international cost of the drone war. Against: no direct SAF–RSF channel, both sides escalating with drones, previous truces collapsed within days. Resolution: both SAF and RSF publicly announce a nationwide truce by 31 Dec 2026.

9. NEXT 72 HOURS · CALENDAR#

10. CORRECTIONS & METHOD NOTES#

• SERIES BREAK. This is the first edition on Methodology v3.0 (World War Tracker). The world number now averages the Escalation Levels of 12 tracked wars. It is not comparable with the v1/v2 values (86–88). The v2 archive (RIX-051 to RIX-070) stays published unchanged.
• Baseline day: no daily moves (▲▼) are shown. Moves begin tomorrow (RIX-072).
• Shabwa (Yemen) toll: published figures are 53 (local authority, 19 Oct), 58 (local authorities, 20 Oct), 60 and 73 (wire reports, 20 Oct) and 75 (funeral footage, 21 Oct). The desk carries the range as DISPUTED and leads with "at least 58".
• Sahel Momentum is held at 10 (stable) because there is no new late-October reporting. This follows the rule "no collection, no move".
• F-20261025-02 (Brazil challenge) is repriced from 20% to 70% after Flávio Bolsonaro demanded annulment. Under rule 10.5 it will still be scored at its issue price of 20%.
• Midday update (13:30 EET): new facts for Ukraine, Yemen, Sudan, Iran, Gaza and Lebanon. Sudan Momentum raised from 16 to 17 (RSF strikes on power stations in four states), so Sudan's EL is 85 and the precise world average is 69.58. Still a baseline edition: no daily moves are shown.
• Lebanon: the source now available dates the framework agreement to 26 June; this desk earlier used 19 June as the ceasefire date. Both are carried until reconciled. The Lebanese health ministry toll is updated to 4,389 killed (to 12 Oct).
• Brier ≈0.21 is approximate: 0.22 across 23 resolutions, plus 0.0625 for F-20261019-01.

Coverage: UKR A · YEM A · SDN B · IRN A · ETH B · DRC B · GAZ A · WBK A · MMR C · PAK B · SAH C · LBN B

11. SOURCES#

Russia–Ukraine: Euromaidan Press: Russian overnight attacks wound six, later strikes kill three, 26 Oct · Anadolu (anews): Russia, Ukraine report casualties, 25 Oct · US News / Reuters: three killed in Belgorod, 25 Oct · AnewZ / Reuters: five killed in Russia, logistics hub hit, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Russia–Ukraine talks planned for November in the UAE, 23 Oct · ABC News: Russia fires 3 waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, 22 Oct

Yemen war: Bloomberg: Egypt parliament backs El-Sisi's offer to defend Saudi Arabia, 26 Oct · The National: Egypt's parliament approves military support for Saudi Arabia (live), 26 Oct · UAE Vartha: Houthi salvos on Riyadh airport; Araghchi on Hormuz, 26 Oct · Gulf News: Trump rules out a strike today; Houthi attack injuries, 25 Oct · Gulf News live: Houthi missile targets Riyadh, 23–25 Oct · Express Tribune: Shabwa toll rises to 73, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Houthi attack on Shabwa camp, 19 Oct

Sudan civil war: Sudan Tribune: RSF drones target power stations across four states, 26 Oct · UN News: drone strikes killed at least 306 in three weeks, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera: drone attack in Sudan–South Sudan border region, 21 Oct · Al Jazeera: how Sudan's shift to drone warfare fuels a civilian crisis, 22 Oct

US/Israel–Iran: India TV: Trump rules out a strike today, 26 Oct · Business Standard / AP: messages still being passed to US, says Iran, 26 Oct · CNN: US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses, 26 Oct (headline) · UAE Vartha: Tehran signals permanent shift in Hormuz rules, 26 Oct · India TV: Trump signals possible Sunday strikes on Iran, 25 Oct · ABC News: Iran live updates, 23–25 Oct · Daily Star / AFP: tanker attacked near Hormuz (UKMTO), 22 Oct · Rio Times: Brent settles at $116.72, 23 Oct

Ethiopia wars: Kuwait Times: Ethiopian forces take control of Mekelle · Al Jazeera: Tigray resumes daily life amid fears of wider war, 22 Oct · Al Jazeera: hundreds of Ethiopians cross into Kenya, 22 Oct

Eastern Congo war: Al Jazeera: fears grow in DRC as Kabila joins rebellion, 18 Oct · Al Jazeera: Kabila's alliance with M23 risks peace talks, 14 Oct · ECDC: WHO declares the Ebola outbreak a PHEIC

Israel–Gaza: Al Jazeera: Israeli forces kill at least five in Gaza, including 7-year-old girl, 26 Oct · VIN News: IDF and ISA eliminate two Hamas commanders, 26 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israeli attacks kill at least four Palestinians in Gaza, 20 Oct · Al Jazeera: Gaza children face worsening food shortages, 21 Oct

West Bank: AP via Click2Houston: a massive West Bank operation days before the election, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Israel to close West Bank crossings as Hebron lockdown continues, 25 Oct

Myanmar civil war: The Irrawaddy: rights group reports heavy increase in junta airstrikes · Myanmar Now: Yesagyo

Pakistan's wars: Radio Pakistan: NA approves the KP emergency, 14 Oct · Al Jazeera: Pakistan suspends Iran border trade, 19 Oct

Sahel insurgency: Al Jazeera: HRW on abuses in Mali, 19 Oct · Intellinews: JNIM resumes fuel-tanker attacks on the Bamako corridor

Israel–Lebanon: Shafaq News: Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon after US talks, 25 Oct · Al Jazeera: Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, 24 Oct

Watchlist: France 24, 26 Oct · CNN, 23 Oct · Al Jazeera, 20 Oct

Named sources without a link (Xinhua, Critical Threats, Khit Thit Media, MDSI, PICSS, ISPR, Long War Journal, Pentagon, WSJ, NYT, OCHA, WHO) were collected through wire search and are cited by name.

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RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-071 · Methodology v3.0 · RIX 70 (69.58) · 3 full-scale · 10/12 escalating · 2 ceasefires on paper · Brier ≈0.21 · 22 forecasts open