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RAGE INDEX — 15 October 2026: 87 HIGH

RAGE INDEX · RIX-2026-060 · Methodology v1.4 · Edition 2026-10-15 · Published 2026-10-17 · 16 min read

RAGE INDEX holds at 87 HIGH: the energy ceasefire collapses, Houthi missiles hit Aden's presidential palace and two tankers burn off Romania.

RIX-2026-060 · RAGE Intel · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Data cutoff 23:59 Beirut#

Methodology v1.4 · Coverage: 6 of 6 theaters refreshed (4 same-day, 2 light-signal) · Read time: 16 min#

Decode. Dominate. Deliver.

The day in one line. Russia–Ukraine's energy ceasefire is over. Russia fired 850 drones and 39 missiles at 30 energy targets. Zelenskyy says Kyiv is "done" with the truce and Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery again. Trump called it "a disgrace." Off Romania, two tankers burned and seven sailors are missing. In Aden, Houthi missiles hit the presidential palace, the seat of Yemen's government, killing five. Trump ruled out using a nuclear weapon on Iran but not the "Mother of All Bombs." The headline holds at 87. Both ceiling theaters' Escalation Units (EUs) rose by a combined +6, matching this month's largest one-day rise.

INDEX#

87 = · 🔴 HIGH#

Confidence band: ±3 (independent-error basis) · ±7 worst case#

Prior close: 87 (RIX-2026-059, 14 Oct) · Precise total: 87.48 (unchanged)

Theater Score Δ Band Coverage Weight Contribution
Middle East 100 = 🔴 HIGH A 0.22 22.00
Eastern Europe & Black Sea 100 = 🔴 HIGH A 0.20 20.00
Indo-Pacific 75 = 🔴 HIGH B 0.22 16.50
Africa 98 = 🔴 HIGH A 0.14 13.72
South & Central Asia 68 = 🟠 ELEVATED B 0.12 8.16
Americas 71 = 🟠 ELEVATED C 0.10 7.10
RAGE INDEX 87 = 🔴 HIGH 1.00 87.48

Escalation Units (uncapped severity for the two theaters at the 100 ceiling): Middle East 182 (▲3) · Eastern Europe & Black Sea 199 (▲3).

Nine-edition record#

Edition Date Headline Precise ME EU EE EU ME EE IP AF SCA AM
RIX-052 7 Oct 86 85.70 162 184 100 100 74 92 62 71
RIX-053 8 Oct 86 86.34 165 187 100 100 74 94 65 71
RIX-054 9 Oct 87 86.76 167 190 100 100 74 97 65 71
RIX-055 10 Oct 87 86.76 171 192 100 100 74 97 65 71
RIX-056 11 Oct 87 87.00 173 192 100 100 74 97 67 71
RIX-057 12 Oct 87 87.22 175 193 100 100 75 97 67 71
RIX-058 13 Oct 87 87.36 176 195 100 100 75 98 67 71
RIX-059 14 Oct 87 87.48 179 196 100 100 75 98 68 71
RIX-060 15 Oct 87 87.48 182 199 100 100 75 98 68 71

Eastern Europe's EU is one point from 200. It has risen +15 in nine editions, and the Middle East's has risen +20. Neither move reaches the headline, because both theaters are already at the 100 ceiling.

KEY JUDGMENTS#

  1. The energy ceasefire lasted four days and was observed by one side only. Ukraine paused its refinery strikes for three days. Russia kept hitting Ukraine's grid throughout, culminating in 850 drones and 39 missiles against 30 energy targets in 19 regions. Kyiv has now returned to striking refineries (Ryazan). The truce collapsed as soon as one side stopped exercising restraint. (Confidence: high.)
  2. Kyiv's Western support is weakening in three places at once. Ukraine says it no longer receives early-warning satellite data, and five ballistic missiles reached Kyiv's Thermal Power Plant No. 4 undetected. A 160 km/h speed cap on Starshield blinded Ukraine's interceptor drones against Russian jet drones flying at more than 500 km/h. And Trump says Zelenskyy is "more difficult to deal with than Putin." The Starshield service was restored on 15 October. The other two have not been fixed. (Confidence: high.)
  3. The Houthis have struck the seat of Yemen's government. Five missiles hit around the al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden, killing five, including two of the prime minister's bodyguards. The Houthis have now attacked the government's headquarters, Saudi Arabia's airports and Aramco within 72 hours. Al Jazeera's Sanaa correspondent reports growing fears of "all-out civil war." (Confidence: high.)
  4. The US is publicly preparing for a strike on Iran after 3 November. Trump has ruled out nuclear weapons but did not rule out the 9,800 kg MOAB. He named Pickaxe Mountain as a possible target and said the war will end "very soon." In Tehran, parliament speaker Ghalibaf says the era of "proportionate responses" is over. Both governments are now signalling a post-election escalation. (Confidence: moderate–high.)
  5. Strikes on Hormuz shipping are at their highest of the war. UKMTO logged 15 attacks between 6 and 14 October, 11 of them in the last four days. Transits fell to 2.9 million barrels on 11 October, against 20.8 million on 8 October. JMIC rates the threat "severe", its second-highest level. (Confidence: high.)

WHAT HAPPENED — late 14 to 15 OCTOBER#

🔴 MIDDLE EAST — 100 = · EU 182 ▲3#

Yemen: the seat of government is hit

  • On Thursday, the Houthis fired five missiles at the al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden (Information Minister al-Eryani). The health minister reports 5 killed and 16 injured. Two of the prime minister's bodyguards were among the dead. The PM and other officials are safe. Al Jazeera's Sanaa correspondent called it a strike "of the first kind" on government headquarters, amid fears of an "all-out civil war" that could draw in regional powers. Confirmed

  • The coalition gave its tally at a Riyadh news conference. King Khalid International has faced at least 20 Houthi attacks in 11 days, and dozens of other airports, oil facilities and ports have been targeted. The Houthi campaign has killed 17 and injured more than 300 in the kingdom. Spokesman al-Maliki says the Houthis are getting ballistic missiles from "other countries in the region." Analyst Elmasry (Doha Institute): the news conference was "a response to military and security failures." Confirmed (coalition figures)

  • Taiz is besieged by the Houthis. Government forces say they retook Sabr al-Mawadim and al-Sarari and repelled an attack on Dhubab airport with the Southern Giants Brigades. Al-Misrakh and at-Turbah have changed hands repeatedly. The government claims 2,309 targeting operations and 460 Houthi vehicles destroyed (not verified). Claimed

  • Yemen's humanitarian situation (WFP and ICRC):

    • about 800,000 people have lost access to life-saving food aid
    • 600,000 in Taiz have no food assistance
    • more than 18 million do not have enough to eat
    • a record 74% of households cannot meet daily food needs
    • wheat-flour stocks are nearly exhausted
    • front-line hospitals in Marib, Taiz and on the Red Sea coast took more than 700 casualties in a single week

    WFP: "the kind of situation that can rapidly spiral into a humanitarian catastrophe." Confirmed

  • Saudi cabinet: the kingdom "will not allow its security or freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb strait to be threatened." Houthi attacks are disrupting travel plans for pilgrims heading to Mecca. Confirmed

Strait of Hormuz: attacks at their highest

  • UKMTO recorded 15 attacks on ships between 6 and 14 October, 11 of them in the last four days. Kpler counts 10 tankers struck between 28 September and 4 October. On 13 October a container ship and a tanker were hit by unidentified projectiles. Live-page headlines on 14 and 15 October report cargo ships sunk in the strait, and video shows containers and debris in the water and a vessel burning. Confirmed (counts) / Developing (sinkings: names and number not confirmed)

  • Daily throughput through Hormuz:

    Date Barrels
    8 Oct 20.8M
    11 Oct 2.9M, the lowest this month
    Pre-war daily average 17.1M

    CENTCOM says US forces helped Gulf partners move more than 19M barrels on 12 October: "IRGC's navy commander has no navy." Confirmed

  • Iran is changing its tactics. Its navy has deployed new units east of the strait, into the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea, for real-time monitoring, and is ordering ships to keep transponders on and coordinate with Iranian forces. A US official says the IRGC uses unarmed spotters in small boats and dhows because US strikes have degraded its radar. The US destroyed one such dhow on 6 October, after taking the crew off, and disclosed it on 14 October. An Iranian official says the new tactics are partly meant to influence the US midterms. Confirmed / Claimed

  • JMIC rates the threat to merchant shipping "severe," its second-highest level. Confirmed

  • Brent rose 0.8% to $106.58 early on 14 October. WTI settled at $94.14. Confirmed

Iran and the US

  • Trump in a Newsmax interview: "I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to." The MOAB is "not nuclear at all … just an extremely large bomb". He declined to say whether he has authorised it. He says the US might strike Iran's nuclear sites again, especially Pickaxe Mountain, and that the war will end "very soon," by force or diplomacy. He sees no ground troops. Confirmed
  • The MOAB (GBU-43/B) weighs about 9,800 kg, with about 8,500 kg of explosive. It is delivered by C-130, airbursts, and destroys structures within about 1 km. Analysts doubt it can reach deeply buried sites. Analysis
  • Iran says the US accepted some of its seven conditions for reopening the strait and ending the war, but calls the US response "insufficient." Speaker Ghalibaf says the era of "proportionate responses" is over. Iran's recent retaliation has reached Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Indirect talks continue through Pakistan and Qatar. Confirmed
  • US force posture: about 50,000 troops across the region and at least three carrier strike groups in or heading to the Gulf. CSIS says replacing expended interceptors and more than 1,000 Tomahawks could take until 2030. Confirmed / Analysis
  • Inside Iran: at least two security officials were killed near Chabahar in Sistan-Baluchestan, including a Basij women's unit commander shot outside her home in Mehrestan. Tehran blames "terrorist outfits" funded from abroad. Iran is calling Starlink a "tool of war" and hinting at more internet restrictions. Confirmed

Gulf security

  • Iraq's PM al-Zaidi in Riyadh: "Iraq's firm position is not to allow its territory to be used as a launching pad for any attacks." In September, a drone strike launched from Iraq hit Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline (capacity 7M bpd), and Riyadh briefly shut the route. Confirmed
  • UN warns of a fertiliser crisis. A UN plan for a fertiliser corridor through Hormuz (5 ships a day, coordinated from Oman, ready 7–10 days after both sides agree) is stalled. Before the war, about one-third of global urea and nearly half of seaborne sulphur passed through the strait. Confirmed

Score rationale. The theater stays at the ceiling. EU ▲3: +2 for the first Houthi strike on Yemen's seat of government, with deaths. +1 for the record rate of attacks on Hormuz shipping and the throughput collapse. +1 for both governments signalling a post-election escalation (MOAB, Pickaxe Mountain, Ghalibaf). −1 for Trump formally ruling out nuclear use.

🔴 EASTERN EUROPE & BLACK SEA — 100 = · EU 199 ▲3#

The energy ceasefire collapses

  • Russia launched more than 850 drones and 39 missiles in 24 hours, hitting 30 energy targets in 19 regions (Zelenskyy). In Kirovohrad, a drone attack lasting more than 10 hours killed 3 and injured 6. A Russian jet-powered drone hit a supermarket in Odesa region. Confirmed
  • Zelenskyy says Kyiv is "done" with the energy ceasefire. He will pause refinery strikes again only if the US supplies Patriot interceptors. Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery, about 180 km southeast of Moscow, where Russia's defence ministry reports a fire from drone debris. Confirmed
  • Trump (Newsmax): the refinery strikes are "a disgrace" and are raising oil prices. Ukraine has "plenty of other targets." He is "not a big fan" of Zelenskyy, who is "more difficult to deal with than Putin." He denies that the US has stopped sharing intelligence. Confirmed
  • On 15 October Ukraine destroyed four Sukhoi fighters and damaged two at Borisoglebsk airbase. Confirmed (Ukrainian claim reported)

The 13–14 October strikes (update to RIX-059)

  • At least 9 killed:

    • Kyiv: 3 (Desnianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts)
    • Dnipropetrovsk: 2 killed, 6 wounded
    • Zaporizhzhia: 1
    • Lutsk (Volyn): 3 killed, at least 12 injured

    More than 500,000 people lost power. Kyiv's Thermal Power Plant No. 4 was hit by five ballistic missiles with no partner warning. Al Jazeera's Kyiv correspondent reports a record number of hypersonic missiles fired at the capital. Russia claims hits on power and heating plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv and on a "data centre" in Kyiv. Confirmed

  • Russia says it downed 902 Ukrainian drones in one night, 180 of them near Moscow (Sobyanin: nearly 500 over Moscow). Sberbank's data centre in Balakovo, Saratov, was attacked and one person was killed. Confirmed (Russian figures)

Intelligence and satellites

  • Early-warning data has been cut off. Zelenskyy says partners stopped providing data from NATO's early-warning satellites, which give up to 10 minutes of warning of a ballistic launch. "That's what helps prevent the killings." He did not name the US. Confirmed (claim)
  • The Starshield speed cap. SpaceX abruptly capped Starshield navigation at 160 km/h, disabling Ukrainian interceptor drones against Geran-4 jet drones (>500 km/h). Zelenskyy says 6 in 10 Russian drones are now jet-powered. Presidential adviser Sternenko says the cap followed Trump's request. Musk: the White House owns and controls Starshield. Service was restored on 15 October (Ukrainian MoD). Confirmed

The Black Sea moves to Romania

  • Two chemical tankers caught fire overnight near the mouth of the Sulina Canal (Danube):

    • Wine Trader (San Marino flag): fire about 13 nm southeast of Sulina. Seven sailors are missing and five were rescued.
    • Yara J (Comoros flag): Romania had already been investigating a possible drone strike. The crew put out the fire.

    Confirmed

  • Romania's President Nicușor Dan: "Two drones hit them." He says Romania will respond once more information is gathered. Neither Romania nor Bulgaria has directly blamed Russia. Rutte met Radev and Dan and says NATO has strengthened its counter-drone capabilities on the eastern flank. NATO will hold a summit on drone incursions into eastern European airspace. Confirmed

  • That makes six vessels hit in three attacks off NATO coasts since 6 October: Alfa Watan and Able (6 Oct), Chelsea 3 and an unnamed ship (13 Oct), and Wine Trader and Yara J (15 Oct). At least 17 sailors are missing. Analysis

Elsewhere

  • Bangladesh arrested two people for luring locals to fight for Russia. Confirmed

Score rationale. The theater stays at the ceiling. EU ▲3: +2 for the collapse of the energy truce under one of the largest strike packages of the year. +1 for the Black Sea attacks extending to Romanian waters, with seven missing. +1 for the loss of early-warning data. −1 for Ukraine's battlefield initiative and NATO's counter-drone measures.

🔴 INDO-PACIFIC — 75 = · Coverage B#

  • North Korea tested two kinds of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles off its east coast on 14 October, including a Pulhwasal-3-31 (KCNA). KCNA says the aim was to test the "reliability of war deterrents." North Korea is not believed to have a modern missile submarine in full operation. These are cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles, so they do not resolve F-20261012-01. Confirmed
  • China and North Korea opened the New Yalu River Bridge between Dandong and Sinuiju on 15 October. Chinese exports to the North are at $2.3bn, a six-year high. A Russia–North Korea road bridge opened recently. Confirmed
  • A Russian nuclear-powered submarine fired missiles during Pacific drills (headline only). China's exports are surging on AI-driven demand. Developing / Confirmed

Score rationale. Holding at 75. North Korea launched three days after its multi-missile salvo of 12 October, but the cruise-missile tests and the bridge opening extend the current pattern rather than escalate it.

🔴 AFRICA — 98 = · Coverage A#

  • Ethiopian and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters have entered Aksum (ACLED), while TPLF fighters hold the surrounding mountains. Rama, near the Eritrean border, has also seen advances. ACLED documented Ethiopian tanks and heavy weapons moving toward the Eritrean border on Tuesday (13 Oct). Confirmed
  • Eritrean troops are withdrawing through Zalambessa (ACLED). The TPF claims "significant" Eritrean casualties, which Eritrea's Yemane Gebremeskel rejects as false. Zalambessa has had no power or water for a week. A resident: "Ethiopian troops are on one side, and Eritrean troops are on the other." Confirmed / Claimed
  • US Secretary of State Rubio called Abiy: the region "could not tolerate more conflict." Confirmed
  • Somalia's electoral commission set parliamentary elections for 15 April 2027 and the presidential vote for 15 May 2027. Former presidents Farmaajo ("dangerous threat to Somalia's statehood") and Sheikh Sharif warn of parallel elections and possible civil conflict. President Mohamud's term ended earlier in 2026 and was extended through a "transition period" by constitutional amendment. Confirmed
  • Kenya's Ebola cases are testing preparedness beyond Nairobi. Migration across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen continues despite the 139 dead off Djibouti. Confirmed

Score rationale. Holding at 98. The Eritrean withdrawal through Zalambessa and Ethiopian armour moving toward the same border cancel out: the fighting is easing while the risk between the two states remains.

🟠 SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA — 68 = · Coverage B#

  • The roof of a private school in Peshawar collapsed, killing 35: 34 children and a teacher. This is a civil disaster in a province under emergency rule, and inspections have been ordered. Confirmed
  • Russia is offering to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Interior Minister Kolokoltsev met Field Marshal Asim Munir in Rawalpindi on 14 October. SVR director Naryshkin met Taliban intelligence chief Wasiq in Kabul the same week. Pakistani strikes on Afghanistan on 24 September and 1 October killed at least 10 civilians (UNAMA). Confirmed
  • Kashmir: a backlash against a proposal for uniform Friday sermons in mosques. India: a teenager was arrested in the US over an alleged plot against a Hindu temple. Confirmed

Score rationale. Holding at 68.

🟠 AMERICAS — 71 = · Coverage C#

  • Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty in New York to charges of conspiracy to torture. Confirmed
  • US: an Oregon elementary school shooting killed 3 children and a teacher. Trump reversed the Pentagon plan to livestream the Fort Hood shooter's execution. X suspended 13,000 accounts over alleged foreign influence ahead of the midterms. Third-country deportations are running into the tens of thousands. G20 finance ministers are meeting in Thailand amid the fallout from the Iran war. Confirmed

Score rationale. Holding at 71.

CROSS-THEATER MONITORS#

⚡ Energy#

Indicator Reading
Brent / WTI $106.58 (14 Oct, early) / $94.14
Hormuz daily flow 20.8M bbl (8 Oct) → 2.9M (11 Oct). Pre-war average 17.1M
Hormuz attacks 15 (6–14 Oct), 11 in the last four days
Russia–Ukraine energy truce Collapsed after 4 days. Ukraine has resumed refinery strikes (Ryazan)
Russian diesel waiver 1.8 Mt through December, sanctions suspended until April 2027
Fertiliser The UN corridor through Hormuz is stalled. ~1/3 of global urea used to transit the strait

🖥️ Cyber & space#

  • Starshield and Starlink are now a point of leverage over Ukraine: a speed cap applied at White House discretion, according to Musk. Iran is calling Starlink a "tool of war." Russia claims it struck a "data centre" in Kyiv, and Ukraine hit Sberbank's data centre in Balakovo.

☢️ WMD & Nuclear#

  • Trump explicitly rules out nuclear use on Iran for the first time, but keeps the MOAB on the table. North Korea: submarine-launched strategic cruise missile tests. The US and Israel say Iran holds about 400 kg of highly enriched uranium underground.

⚓ Maritime — Black Sea, 6–15 October#

Date Vessel Location Outcome
6 Oct Alfa Watan (Togo) ~80 nm off Bulgaria Sank, 10 missing
13 Oct Chelsea 3 (Malta) ~18 nm off Bulgaria Damaged, 15 rescued
13 Oct Unnamed Off Bulgaria Sank, 1 rescued
15 Oct Wine Trader (San Marino) ~13 nm SE of Sulina, Romania Fire, 7 missing
15 Oct Yara J (Comoros) Off Sulina, Romania Fire, put out by crew

FORECAST LEDGER#

Ledger: 19 resolved · running Brier ≈ 0.20 · 12 open.

ID Question Resolves Price Status
F-20261008-01 US kinetic strike on Iranian territory, 8 Oct – 3 Nov? 3 Nov 12% Open. Trump points to the post-election period
F-20261008-02 US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral by 31 Oct? 31 Oct 20% Open. Energy truce has collapsed
F-20261009-01 Iran's formal response to the US Hormuz counter-proposal by 16 Oct? 16 Oct 60% Open. Resolves tomorrow. Iran has publicly called the US response "insufficient" (14 Oct) but no formal reply has been confirmed
F-20261009-02 Ethiopia strikes or enters Eritrea by 31 Oct? 31 Oct 25% Open. Ethiopian armour is moving toward the border
F-20261010-01 Declared US strike on Houthi targets by 31 Oct? 31 Oct 20% Open
F-20261011-01 Pakistan's parliament approves the KP emergency by 21 Oct? 21 Oct 75% Open
F-20261012-01 Another DPRK ballistic launch, 13–31 Oct? 31 Oct 55% Open. The 14 Oct test was of cruise missiles and does not count
F-20261013-01 Riyadh KKIA resumes scheduled departures by 18 Oct? 18 Oct 50% Open. 20 attacks in 11 days weigh against it
F-20261013-02 FRN/M23 takes a further DRC provincial capital by 30 Nov? 30 Nov 15% Open
F-20261014-01 Houthi attack halts or reduces Saudi crude production, processing or export, 14–31 Oct? 31 Oct 25% Open
F-20261014-02 Lusaka defence ministers' meeting on 18 Oct convenes with both DRC and Rwanda present? 18 Oct 65% Open
F-20261015-01 Will a Houthi attack kill at least one person in Aden governorate between 16 and 31 October 2026, per the Yemeni government or a named international agency? 31 Oct 45% New

Reasoning for F-20261015-01. The Houthis have just shown they can strike the seat of government with five missiles, and they are attacking every day. Against that, Aden is farther away and better defended than the Taiz front.

WATCH — NEXT 72 HOURS#

  1. Iran's reply. F-20261009-01 resolves on 16 October.
  2. NATO's drone summit: the date and format, and whether Romania formally attributes the Wine Trader strike.
  3. The European Council: Ukraine's financing for 2027 and the response to the US diesel waiver.
  4. Hormuz: confirmation of names and numbers for the reported sinkings.
  5. The Ethiopia–Eritrea border at Zalambessa and Rama.
  6. Riyadh KKIA's reopening (F-20261013-01, 18 Oct).

CORRECTIONS & EDITORIAL NOTES#

  • Backfill edition. This edition was compiled on 17 October and is limited to events up to the end of 15 October. It also covers events late on 14 October that came after RIX-059's 13:15 cutoff.
  • Update to RIX-059. That edition said casualties from the 13–14 October Kyiv strikes were not yet available. They are now: at least 9 killed and more than 500,000 without power (see Eastern Europe).
  • Clarification of RIX-059. The East–West pipeline drone strike from Iraq took place in September, not this week. It is cited here as context for the Iraqi PM's visit to Riyadh.
  • Diesel volumes. The 1.8 Mt total in later reporting equals the October–December schedule printed in RIX-059 (0.3 + 0.5 + 1.0 Mt).

SOURCES#

At least 5 killed in Houthi attack on presidential palace in Aden, 15 Oct · Fighting in Yemen intensifies, 15 Oct · Renewed fighting risks catastrophe in Yemen, 14 Oct · Iran war live, 15 Oct · Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance as attacks soar, 14 Oct · US destroys suspected IRGC command-and-control dhow, 14 Oct · Containers and debris in the Strait of Hormuz, 15 Oct · US–Iran stalemate: Trump's options, 15 Oct · What is the MOAB?, 15 Oct · Trump rules out a nuclear strike on Iran, 16 Oct · Security officials killed near Chabahar, 14 Oct · Iran targets Starlink, 14 Oct · Iraqi PM in Riyadh, 14 Oct · UN warns of fertiliser crisis, 14 Oct · Massive Russian attack kills at least 9, 14 Oct · Ukraine resumes refinery strikes; Trump slams Zelenskyy, 15 Oct · Ukrainians fear US intelligence cuts, 15 Oct · What is Starshield?, 15 Oct · Musk says the US military controls Starlink limits, 14 Oct · Seven missing as tankers burn off Romania, 15 Oct · Jet drone hits Odesa supermarket, 15 Oct · Bangladesh arrests Russian army recruiters, 14 Oct · North Korea tests submarine-launched missiles, 15 Oct · China–North Korea bridge opens, 15 Oct · Ethiopia expands control in Tigray, 15 Oct · Somalia to hold elections in 2027, 15 Oct · Peshawar school roof collapse, 15 Oct · Can Russia ease Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions?, 16 Oct · Maduro pleads not guilty, 15 Oct · X suspends 13,000 accounts, 15 Oct · G20 finance ministers meet, 15 Oct

RAGE Intel | Decode. Dominate. Deliver. RIX-2026-060 · Methodology v1.4 · Brier 0.20 (n=19) · 12 forecasts open