Region Intelligence
European security, NATO posture, and the Russia–Ukraine war.
A $20,000-$50,000 drone against a $4 million interceptor. 57,000 launched at Ukraine. Now the engine changed — and the cost exchange is being contested back.
2026-08-29 · 13 min read
A glass thread thinner than a hair defeated the most extensive tactical EW in the world. Spools now reach 65 km. The limitations nobody mentions.
2026-08-29 · 12 min read
Most "AI swarm" claims describe automation, not autonomy. CSIS found no verifiable evidence Russian swarming has been fielded. What has been, and what hasn't.
2026-08-29 · 12 min read
Russia spent 65% of Q1 federal revenue on defence. The four-month deficit exceeded all of 2025. Growth forecast cut to 0.4%. The sustainability arithmetic.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
Putin says 700,000 in Ukraine — the same as mid-2024. Contract signings fell 20% year-on-year. Russia adapted its doctrine and hit a recruitment wall.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
NATO cut response times from 17 hours to one. Sabotage fell. But attribution remains the unsolved problem — an anchor is not a weapon until someone proves intent.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
Russia entered 2022 with the most extensive tactical EW of any military. Fibre-optic drones made it irrelevant in one mission set — and spoofing crossed into NATO airspace.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
New START expired in February 2026. The 2024 doctrine lowered the threshold. What the text actually says, what the signalling is for, and where the limits are.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
A $400 drone kills a $4.5 million tank. Russia plans 7.3 million FPVs in 2026. The full cost-exchange arithmetic that now governs every defence budget.
2026-08-22 · 14 min read
Jammers, guns, missiles, lasers, nets. Every counter-drone layer fails somewhere, and the ones that work lose the cost exchange. The honest scorecard.
2026-08-22 · 13 min read
Article 5 does not require anyone to go to war. It has been invoked once, and not for a European invasion. What the text actually says, and what it leaves out.
2026-08-22 · 12 min read
Finland kept 1,500 guns while the rest of Europe divested. Ukraine proved it right. Why artillery — not air power, not armour — still decides ground war.
2026-08-22 · 12 min read