Region Intelligence
European security, NATO posture, and the Russia–Ukraine war.
Russian forces have not taken Pokrovsk. Ukraine advanced at Kupyansk. Infiltration replaced assault. What the front actually looks like in 2026.
2026-09-02 · 12 min read
Seven drone makers in 2022. Around 500 now. Four million units produced in 2025, seven million targeted for 2026 — the fastest defence-industrial scale-up on record.
2026-09-02 · 12 min read
Leopard 2 armour was never penetrated frontally — 57% of the 2A6 tranche was still lost. A verdict on Western systems by what the evidence actually shows.
2026-09-02 · 12 min read
Ukraine intercepts 87% of drones and 15% of ballistic missiles. The Patriots ran out on 1 July. The interceptor drone is now the load-bearing pillar.
2026-09-02 · 12 min read
Ukraine has hit every one of Russia's largest refineries. Estimates of capacity disabled range from 20% to 43% — and the range itself is the story.
2026-09-02 · 12 min read
A $20,000-$50,000 drone against a $4 million interceptor. 57,000 launched at Ukraine. Now the engine changed — and the cost exchange is being contested back.
2026-08-29 · 13 min read
A glass thread thinner than a hair defeated the most extensive tactical EW in the world. Spools now reach 65 km. The limitations nobody mentions.
2026-08-29 · 12 min read
Most "AI swarm" claims describe automation, not autonomy. CSIS found no verifiable evidence Russian swarming has been fielded. What has been, and what hasn't.
2026-08-29 · 12 min read
Russia spent 65% of Q1 federal revenue on defence. The four-month deficit exceeded all of 2025. Growth forecast cut to 0.4%. The sustainability arithmetic.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
Putin says 700,000 in Ukraine — the same as mid-2024. Contract signings fell 20% year-on-year. Russia adapted its doctrine and hit a recruitment wall.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
NATO cut response times from 17 hours to one. Sabotage fell. But attribution remains the unsolved problem — an anchor is not a weapon until someone proves intent.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read
Russia entered 2022 with the most extensive tactical EW of any military. Fibre-optic drones made it irrelevant in one mission set — and spoofing crossed into NATO airspace.
2026-08-28 · 12 min read